Will Xi Become Mao?

Written by Frank Li

As expected, China’s Congress has changed the Constitution, removing the term limit for the Chinese Presidency, thus allowing Xi Jinping to serve as the President indefinitely.

In a previous post (China: Is the Experiment Over?), I spelled out its implication. In this post, I will succinctly ask and answer a critical question: will Xi become Mao? Highly unlikely!

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It’s highly unlikely for three main reasons:

1. Xi is very different from Mao.
2. Xi’s China is very different from Mao’s.
3. Xi’s world is very different from Mao’s.

Let me elaborate on each …

1. Xi is very different from Mao

Let me highlight these two individuals before comparing them.

1.1 Who is Mao?

Below is an excerpt from Wikipedia – Mao Zedong.

Mao Zedong[a] (December 26, 1893 – September 9, 1976), commonly known as Chairman Mao, was a Chinese communist revolutionary, poet, political theorist and founding father of the People’s Republic of China, which he ruled as the Chairman of the Communist Party of China from its establishment in 1949 until his death in 1976.

In short, there are two explicit versions of Mao:

1. The great one: Mao unified China by force in 1949, thanks to his brilliance in military leadership!
2. The bad one: He was a total disaster for China from 1949 to 1976, because he was clueless about governing!

In other words, Mao, like many hugely successful military leaders in history, failed in the mega-transition from seizing power by force to governing.

Here is an informative reading: George Washington vs. Mao Zedong.

1.2 Who is Xi?

Below is an excerpt from Wikipedia – Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping (Chinese: ä¹ è¿‘å¹³; pinyin: Xí Jìnpíng; Mandarin: [É•Ç tɕîn.pÊ°ÇÅ‹]; born 15 June 1953) is a Chinese politician currently serving as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China,[2] President of the People’s Republic of China,[3] and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.[4] As Xi holds the top offices of the party, the state, and the military, he is sometimes referred to as China’s “paramount leader“;[5][6] in 2016, the party officially gave him the title of “core” leader.[7] As General Secretary, Xi holds an ex-officio seat on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, China’s top decision-making body.

In short, Xi is the man in China, now!

1.3 Comparing Xi with Mao

Here is the most critical difference between them: Unlike Mao, who failed in the mega-transition from seizing power by force to governing, Xi did not face such a transition at all! Instead, Xi came to power in peace times through his demonstrated excellence in governance and political skills.

In other words, Xi may not know how to fight and win wars, for which Mao was brilliant, but he knows how to govern, for which Mao failed miserably.

Governing is what China needs now! Excellence in governance is what Xi has offered to China, so far!

Bottom line: Xi cannot match Mao in feat (i.e. the great Mao), nor, most likely, in defeat (i.e. the bad Mao), as feat and defeat tend to go hand in hand, historically speaking.

2. Xi’s China is very different from Mao’s

After four decades of the open-door policy and economic reforms, China has rapidly advanced from a dirt-poor country to a relatively prosperous one.

Very notably, China has a well-educated population, with two key characteristics as follows:

1. It still remembers Mao and his disastrous Cultural Revolution – been there, seen that!
2. It is well-informed of the world affairs, from capitalism to democracy.

Bottom line: If Xi goes too far to the left like Mao did, Chinese people will resist and rebel!

3. Xi’s world is very different from Mao’s

As will be discussed in the next section, the Chinese President is not a big deal when compared with the CPC’s “Chairman” (now called “General Secretary”). For example, Mao was the Chairman from 1949 to 1976, without being the President at all.

The Chinese President is important only outside of China.

Like Mao, Xi could remain as the “Chairman” for life, as there is no term limit for it. Unlike Mao, Xi not only is the President, but also wants to keep it for more than two terms. As a matter of fact, he wanted it so badly that he was willing to change China’s Constitution for it.

Why is that? He needs it! Xi has to interact with the world, unlike Mao whose only oversea trip was to the USSR (Mao’s humiliation in Moscow in 1949).

Positive thinking: When Xi interacts with the world, he must conform to some international standards, which should limit his possible “defeat†at home. Many Chinese hope so, at least.

4. Discussion

Let’s discuss in five perspectives as follows:

1. China’s one-party system.
2. Chinese history.
3. China’s short-term future.
4. China’s long-term future.
5. China vs. America.

4.1 China’s one-party system

The image below highlights China’s one-party system.

As you can see, the Chinese President is not the top job in China. Rather, the head of the CPC is, regardless of its title (i.e. “Chairman” or “General Secretary”)!

4.2 Chinese history

China led the world mostly for the first 1,800 years of our 2-millennium-old calendar, throughout which China’s prosperity relied heavily on wise Emperors. The image below highlights the key difference between the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire.

For more, read: China vs. America: Uniformity vs. Diversity.

Let’s focus on the modern Chinese history. Below are five major Chinese leaders since 1949.

Mao was unquestionably the de facto last Emperor of China, with the possibility of “crown by inheritance”. Unfortunately for Mao, his only able son was killed during the Korean War. Rumor has it that Mao never really recovered from that loss …

What about the other four? All were (or are) dictators, with absolute power, mostly at least. But none was (or is) an Emperor per se, for the lack of the possibility of “crown by inheritance†like Mao did. Specifically,

1. Deng Xiaoping served for life! For example, he remained a paramount leader until his death in 1997, while Jiang Zemin served as the President from 1993 to 2003.
2. Copying Deng, Jiang remained as the Chairman of the Central Military Commission until 2004, while Hu Jintao served as the President from 2003 to 2013. During the overlapping years, Jiang made sure his folks were safe under Hu. Jiang remained a powerful force to be reconciled with throughout Hu’s era.
3. Hu was perhaps the weakest among all. But he did an exceptional thing when he retired: he retired completely, George Washington-style! It seemed like a good thing at the time, but read on …
4. Xi came to power totally unconstrained. He soon consolidated his power by replacing most, if not all, of Hu’s (and even Jiang’s) folks, asserting total control of everything, from the CPC, to the military, and to the government!

Bottom line: Even before this new constitutional change, Xi was already the most powerful leader in China since Mao!

4.3 China’s short-term future

It’s largely in the hands of Xi Jinping!

In all fairness, given his track record, Xi is more likely to be a wise Emperor than a bad one, with one caveat: he could become an “old, dumb, and bad Emperor” (æ˜å›) if he serves well into his dusk (e.g. the 4th term).

Hopefully he understands that.

I believe global opinions will have an impact on Xi Jinping, which is another key difference between him and Mao.

Three important figures to watch:

1. Li Keqiang: As the Premier and China’s titular #2 leader, he was actually the #1 victim of Xi’s power grab, started five years ago. But then, do you know France has a Premier (and so does Russia)?
2. Wang Qishan: He was China’s actual #2 leader for the past five years. Specifically, as the Secretary of the CPC’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, he was responsible for Xi‘s anti-corruption campaign since 2013. Rumor has it that he was the strongest voice against the change to the term limit – a great voice of conscience (Built to Last: Structure & Conscience)! He exited the Politburo at the CPC’s 19th congress, thanks the rule of 7 up and 8 down. But now, Xi made Wang the first person to break that rule by “appointing†him the VP (and again China’s actual #2) – Politics is cruel!
3. Li Qiang: As the new CPC boss in Shanghai, he is rumored to be a front-runner to become China’s VP in 2023, thus succeeding Xi in 2028. But five years are a long time in modern Chinese politics, let alone 10 years …

4.4 China’s long-term future

Two most basic and challenging questions and answers for China:

1. Is an Emperor-like figure indispensable for China? My answer is yes. The key reason: China’s civilization of the past 5,000 years has heavily relied on wise Emperors! Besides, what’s the alternative – Democracy? For more, read: China vs. America: Uniformity vs. Diversity.
2. How should this figure come by? Maybe an earned kingship (or Emperorship) is the way to go. For more, read: Chinese Presidency: An Earned Kingship for 10 Years.

With that, do you still think it a big deal to change the time-frame from 10 years to 15? I do not think so! But what about to 20 or even for life? That would be a very different story – Let time speak. Five years are a long time in modern Chinese history …

Modern Chinese history is written by two individuals:

1. Mao: the great one, as well as the bad one!
2. Deng: He transformed China from communism to state capitalism, for which he should be regarded as the greatest peaceful transformational leader in human history.

Can Xi write the next chapter, good for China for decades to come? Time will tell …

4.5 China vs. America

Against this constitutional change in China, why is there such a huge outcry both inside and outside of China, especially in America? Two simple explanations:

1. China: Most Chinese do not truly understand the alternative (i.e. democracy), but they clearly remember the past (e.g. the Cultural Revolution) and are deeply worried about a repeat.
2. America: Few Americans want to see China succeed further, and they view every [perceived] set-back in China as a justification of the superiority of the American political system (i.e. democracy).

Overall, few Americans would find China’s one-party system attractive. But here is a prominent exception: Trump on China’s Xi consolidating power: ‘Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day’.

Why is that?

Was he just joking or does he have some special insights into American politics, especially the American Presidency, that most Americans do not?

Everything is relative! While the Chinese are working hard on their political system, let’s work hard on ours. Two informative readings:

1. China: Is the Experiment Over?
2. America: Is the Experiment Over?

For more, read my last book: American Democracy.

5. Closing

Xi will not become Mao, the bad one, chiefly because he cannot match Mao, the great one!

I wish the best for China, as well as President Xi.

For mankind, the search for an ideal form of government continues. For more, read: Towards an Ideal Form of Government (Version 3).

Now, please sit back and enjoy the long video below.