Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 11.9 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 12.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 77,718
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 948
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 45.9 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases improved and deaths improved
- Scientists say they still don’t know whether vaccinated people can spread the virus.
- New rise in Covid cases shows that, yes, the vaccines work
- Fully vaccinated against COVID-19? CDC says it’s safe to travel but still recommends staying home
- Point-of-Care Antigen Tests Unreliable in Asymptomatic Cases
- German vaccine commission says people under 60 shouldn’t receive AstraZeneca second dose
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end-of-year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 45 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 45 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 44 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Fully vaccinated against COVID-19? CDC says it’s safe to travel but still recommends staying home – USA Today
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Americans who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 can resume travel at low risk to themselves, but the agency is still not recommending travel given rising case counts.
CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, who earlier this week issued an urgent plea to limit travel due to fears of another COVID surge, said Friday that the new guidance is based on studies showing the “real-world” effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.
Vaccinated travelers no longer have to follow the CDC’s recommendations to get a COVID-19 test before and after travel unless required by the destination. They still need to wear masks and take other precautions. A person is considered fully vaccinated two weeks after receiving the last recommended vaccine dose.
The CDC’s Friday announcement does not change one high-profile COVID travel restriction, however. Vaccinated travelers still must abide by a CDC order, issued in January, requiring a negative COVID test to board international flights to the United States, and should get another test three to five days after returning.
New rise in Covid cases shows that, yes, the vaccines work – NBC News
Younger, unvaccinated people appear to be driving the latest uptick in Covid-19 cases.
People under 60 are accounting for the majority of new Covid-19 cases across the country – likely a testament to the success of the vaccines that have been administered to primarily older, more vulnerable Americans.
The number of cases is rising again following a steep decline and then plateauing for several weeks. During a White House Covid-19 briefing Monday, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said the rise in cases – an average increase of 10 percent from the previous week – gave her a sense of “impending doom.”
But doctors say that patients seeking care this time around are younger and, notably, not as sick.
In New York, where cases are rising, some Covid-19 patients still require hospitalization, but the numbers of such patients are nowhere near the “astronomical” levels from a year ago, said Dr. Frederick Davis, an associate chair of emergency medicine at Northwell Health’s Long Island Jewish Hospital.
US deaths normally change less than 2% each year; in 2020, they rose nearly 23% – EurekAlert
Black Americans experienced highest per capita excess death rates, while regional surges contributed to higher excess death rates from COVID-19 and other causes, a VCU-led JAMA study finds.
IMAGE: A MAP OF THE UNITED STATES SHOWING THE RATE OF EXCESS DEATHS. THE DAKOTAS, NEW ENGLAND, THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST HAD SOME OF THE HIGHEST EXCESS DEATHS PER 100,000 PEOPLE – CREDIT: VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY
Extended surges in the South and West in the summer and early winter of 2020 resulted in regional increases in excess death rates, both from COVID-19 and from other causes, a 50-state analysis of excess death trends has found. Virginia Commonwealth University researchers’ latest study notes that Black Americans had the highest excess death rates per capita of any racial or ethnic group in 2020.
The research, publishing Friday in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offers new data from the last 10 months of 2020 on how many Americans died during 2020 as a result of the effects of the pandemic — beyond the number of COVID-19 deaths alone — and which states and racial groups were hit hardest.
The rate of excess deaths — or deaths above the number that would be expected based on averages from the previous five years — is usually consistent, fluctuating 1% to 2% from year to year, said Steven Woolf, M.D., the study’s lead author and director emeritus of VCU’s Center on Society and Health. From March 1, 2020, to Jan. 2, 2021, excess deaths rose a staggering 22.9% nationally, fueled by COVID-19 and deaths from other causes, with regions experiencing surges at different times.
“COVID-19 accounted for roughly 72% of the excess deaths we’re calculating, and that’s similar to what our earlier studies showed. There is a sizable gap between the number of publicly reported COVID-19 deaths and the sum total of excess deaths the country has actually experienced,” Woolf said.
For the other 28% of the nation’s 522,368 excess deaths during that period, some may actually have been from COVID-19, even if the virus was not listed on the death certificates due to reporting issues.
But Woolf said disruptions caused by the pandemic were another cause of the 28% of excess deaths not attributed to COVID-19. Examples might include deaths resulting from not seeking or finding adequate care in an emergency such as a heart attack, experiencing fatal complications from a chronic disease such as diabetes, or facing a behavioral health crisis that led to suicide or drug overdose.
Higher B.1.1.7 transmission in households than other SARS-CoV-2 variants – News-Medical
Contact tracing data from a new preprint study on the medRxiv* preprint server provides further evidence that the B.1.1.7 variant – first reported in the United Kingdom – has a high transmission rate. The research, led by Birgitte Freiseleben de Blasio from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and the University of Oslo in Norway, estimates B.1.1.7 has a 60% greater transmission within households than other severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern.
The researchers write:
Our study suggests that households are major locations for rapid transmission of the lineage B.1.1.7. Therefore, lowering the risk of spread within the families is pivotal to controlling the COVID-19 pandemic with new and more transmissible lineages.”
Point-of-Care Antigen Tests Unreliable in Asymptomatic Cases – Medscape
“While-you-wait” tests for COVID-19 that detect proteins on the virus are better at diagnosing the disease in patients with symptoms than in those without symptoms, according to data pooled from 64 studies.
The analysis, published by The Cochrane Library, found that on average, antigen tests correctly identified 72% of symptomatic COVID-19 cases but only 58% of cases in people without symptoms.
The best-performing test – the SD Biosensor STANDARD Q – correctly identified the virus in 88% of symptomatic patients and in 69% of those with no symptoms. For screening purposes, among 10,000 people with no symptoms, where 50 people had COVID-19, this test would correctly identify 35, miss 15 cases, and incorrectly give positive results to 90 people who were not infected, the authors estimated.
“Confirming a positive result from a rapid test with a RT-PCR test, particularly where cases of COVID-19 are low, may help avoid unnecessary quarantine,” coauthor Jac Dinnes of the University of Birmingham in the UK said in a statement. “All antigen tests will miss some people with infection, so it is important to inform people who receive a negative test result that they may still be infected.”
German vaccine commission says people under 60 shouldn’t receive AstraZeneca second dose – The Hill
A German vaccine commission is advising people under the age of 60 that have received their first dose of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine to not receive their second dose.
Reuters reported that the panel, called STIKO, recommended that people receive a dose of an mRNA-based vaccine, such as those from Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna, 12 weeks after receiving their first AstraZeneca dose.
“Until the appropriate data is available, STIKO recommends for people under 60 years old that instead of the second AstraZeneca dose, a dose of an mRNA-vaccine should be given 12 weeks after the first vaccine,” STIKO said, according to Reuters.
STIKO noted that here was no scientific evidence on the safety of a mixed series of vaccines, according to the wire service.
An AstraZeneca spokesperson told The Hill that it respects the commission’s decision, but reaffirmed that regulators have not found an established a causal link between the vaccine and clotting.
[editor’s note: also read The Netherlands pauses use of AstraZeneca vaccine for those under 60]
Scientists say they still don’t know whether vaccinated people can spread the virus. – New York Times
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday walked back contentious comments made in a TV interview by its director, Dr. Rochelle P. Walensky, suggesting that people vaccinated against the coronavirus never become infected or transmit the virus to others.
The assertion called into question the precautions that the agency had urged vaccinated people to take just last month, like wearing masks and gathering only under limited circumstances with unvaccinated people.
“Dr. Walensky spoke broadly during this interview,” an agency spokesman told The New York Times. “It’s possible that some people who are fully vaccinated could get Covid-19. The evidence isn’t clear whether they can spread the virus to others. We are continuing to evaluate the evidence.”
The agency was responding in part to criticism from scientists who noted that current research was far from sufficient to claim that vaccinated people cannot spread the virus.
The data suggest that “it’s much harder for vaccinated people to get infected, but don’t think for one second that they cannot get infected,” said Paul Duprex, director of the Center for Vaccine Research at the University of Pittsburgh.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Jerusalem’s Old City Comes Alive With Religious Festivals As Vaccination Rate Rises
IMF to raise global growth forecasts on U.S. stimulus and Covid vaccination progress
A vaccine ‘fiasco’ damages Europe’s credibility.
The U.K. reports more blood-clotting cases in people who received the AstraZeneca shot.
Australians stranded overseas file a complaint with the U.N. against their government.
The South African authorities approve the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Turning to Russia, San Marino gave its vaccination campaign a jump start.
India’s Covid-19 cases are rising again. One state is getting hit especially hard
Chile registers record number of daily Covid-19 cases for second day in a row
What started as an April Fool’s prank on Facebook ended with Belgian police using tear gas and water cannons to break up a crowd of thousands of young people who gathered at a Brussels park in defiance of the country’s COVID-19 lockdown.
Foreign diplomats and aid workers have fled North Korea en masse in recent months due to shortages of goods and “unprecedented” restrictions on daily life imposed to stop the spread of coronavirus, according to the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang.
Turkey’s daily Covid-19 cases hit a record high as restrictions are reimposed
Panama authorizes emergency use of Russia’s Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine
One example of global vaccine disparities: while the developed world expects to conclude vaccinations this summer, Vietnam thinks 80% of its population will still be waiting for shots by year-end.
One in five Britons with COVID-19 still had symptoms 5 weeks after initial infection and almost 15% had ongoing symptoms at 12 weeks.
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The C.D.C. has recommended that Americans, even those who have been fully vaccinated, not travel yet. Case numbers have been rising in the U.S., and variants are spreading. But the reality is that many people who have received the vaccine are booking flights and trips again.
Moderna said the vaccine can now be kept 24 hours at room temperature after thawing, and doses remain good 12 hours after vials are opened.
We might not even need that AstraZeneca vaccine, according to Anthony Fauci, MD.
At least 55 of America’s largest corporations, including FedEx and Nike, paid no federal taxes last year on billions of dollars in profits, a study found.
Experimental therapy for parasitic heart disease may also help stop COVID-19
Fauci Expects Surge In Vaccinations To Keep A 4th Coronavirus Wave At Bay
New COVID-19 cases climb back above 70,000 in US as vaccinations make progress
FDA adjusts Moderna authorization to permit more vaccine doses in each vial
Suicides Fell by 2,600 in 2020
A decline in testing may be masking the spread of the virus in some U.S. states.
Here’s how you can be forced to get the Covid vaccine in the U.S.
Russia says it has agreements with manufacturers in 10 countries to produce Sputnik V vaccine
Fully vaccinated people in US may gather unmasked indoors for Easter this weekend, CDC tweets
Johnson & Johnson expands Covid-19 vaccine trial to include ages 12 to 17
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
26 March 2021 ECRI’s WLI Growth Rate Improvement Continues
March 2021 BLS Jobs Situation – Job Gains Excellent For A Second Month In A Row
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation Or Deflation?
America First? Covid-19 Production And Exports
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts – in the U.S. and around the world – decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu – as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent – is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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