Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 20.7 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago and U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 5.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 70,265
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 685
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 43.6 % of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened and deaths worsened [new cases are now clearly on a worsening trend]
- How long will the coronavirus vaccines protect you? Experts weigh in
- We’ve achieved herd immunity for the measles. Will we ever get there on COVID-19?
- Vaccine Insider: COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign Must End
- African Americans report higher COVID preventive behaviors than Caucasians
- Researchers develop broadly neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 ferritin nanoparticle vaccine
- New Study of Coronavirus Variants Predicts Virus Evolving to Escape Current Vaccines, Treatments
- T cells recognize recent SARS-CoV-2 variants
- IV Aviptadil Shows Benefit in COVID Recovery, Survival
- Remote school resulted in ‘significant’ academic learning loss, study finds
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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge
Hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays. The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.
source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and it now shows that the coronavirus effect is now shrinking.
In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
The New Variants Are The Primary Cause Of This Fourth Wave
Even with vaccinations picking up, the fourth wave is now underway.
- the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 43 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 43 % [it is unproven whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
- it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 43 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is reported somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
- The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
- It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.
The real question is whether the vaccines will be mitigating this surge – and to what extent.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
We’ve achieved herd immunity for the measles. Will we ever get there on COVID-19? – USA Today
These days, everyone is talking about herd immunity. But what actually is it? We are all a part of a larger herd, and when a critical mass of immunity is reached, the contagion slows to a crawl or even a stop. Herd or population immunity is based on how transmissible a pathogen is. If it spreads easily, then a higher percentage of immune hosts are needed to slow it down, until the pathogen runs out of available options. With measles, probably the most easily transmissible respiratory virus, that number is around 95%, and since almost all of us take the vaccine as young children, we achieve it.
So when can we expect to get to herd immunity on COVID-19? First, it depends on how many people have been infected and have developed a natural immune response. Antibody tests project this number to be close to three times higher than reported cases, or about 100 million people. This group provides a substantial blockade to the virus, as long as they’re not confronted with a variant to which they’re not immune.
Variants have not yet caused significant reinfection in the United States, and we are trying to stay ahead of them by vaccinating people as quickly as possible. This part depends on us and our willingness to be vaccinated. So far, so good, with over 90 million having received at least one dose and over 51 million fully vaccinated. Plus, vaccine administration is accelerating; nearly 3.5 million shots were given Saturday alone. Over 70% of the high risk elderly have received at least one dose, and CDC surveillance shows steep declines in hospitalizations of the elderly in several states.
But we are still nowhere near herd immunity. Keep in mind that the SARS-COV-2 virus, though not nearly as transmissible as measles, has been estimated to have an R0 of 2.5, meaning that for every person who has it, 2.5 others are likely to get it. Several variants, including the UK B117 variant, are even more transmissible and since they are now spreading widely, the R0 is increasing.
So we still have a long way to go. In fact, over the past week, 22 states have experienced a 10% rise in cases due to more gatherings, relaxed restrictions and rapidly spreading variants, with only a third of adults having received at least one dose of a vaccine.
When the current number of vaccinated has doubled, and close to 200 million people have received at least one dose, we should have enough immunity to exit the pandemic. At the current rate of 3 million doses or more a day, a combination of natural and vaccinated immunity should get us there in late June.
How long will the coronavirus vaccines protect you? Experts weigh in. – Washington Post
Federal health authorities have not provided a definitive answer to this question.
But based on clinical trials, experts do know that vaccine-induced protection should last a minimum of about three months. That does not mean protective immunity will expire after 90 days; that was simply the time frame participants were studied in the initial Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson trials. As researchers continue to study the vaccines, that shelf life is expected to grow.
In the real world, the protection should last quite a bit longer, though the length of time still needs to be determined with further studies, experts said.
There are also certain factors that may influence how much protection they provide and for how long.
Chunhuei Chi, director of the Center for Global Health at Oregon State University, said immune responses vary from person to person. People who have a stronger immune response to a vaccine will produce more antibodies and memory cells — and therefore have stronger immunity, he said. But there is not currently evidence to show that a stronger immune response will increase the duration of immunity.
And it does not mean people with a stronger immune response will have more severe side effects from the shots or vice versa, according to a recent survey by the British National Health System.
Immunity could also depend on what happens with future variants. If a person were exposed to a variant capable of evading vaccine-induced antibodies, for instance, a vaccine might not be as effective as initially expected, said Lana Dbeibo, an infectious-disease expert at the Indiana University School of Medicine.
Although researchers do not yet have all the answers, previous knowledge of other coronaviruses, as well as emerging research about the current strain, may provide clues.
Looking at studies on natural immunity from the coronavirus, experts hypothesize that protective immunity from the vaccines will last at least six to eight months. And if immunity from SARS-CoV-2 ends up being similar to other seasonal coronaviruses, such as “common colds,” it is even possible the vaccines could provide protection for up to a year or two before requiring a booster, the experts said.
… Current research shows that people who have been infected with covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, retained immunity that was robust after eight months. That gives researchers a starting point in predicting how long immunity may last after vaccination.
Vaccine Insider: COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Campaign Must End – Mercola
- In an open letter, Geert Vanden Bossche, Ph.D., a vaccinology insider and former global director of vaccine programs, including work for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has called for the mass vaccination campaign against COVID-19 to end
- He’s reached out to the World Health Organization and other international health organizations to warn of the potentially detrimental consequences of further viral immune escape triggered by the current COVID-19 vaccination campaign, calling it the “single most important public health emergency of international concern”
- The widespread COVID-19 vaccination campaign may efficiently turn what was a relatively harmless virus into a “bioweapon of mass destruction,” according to Bossche, who’s instead calling for creation of natural killer (NK) cell-based vaccines
- Investigative journalist Rosemary Frei believes that Bossche has a “not-so-hidden agenda,” which is to push the development of this different type of vaccine and calls his open letter “a continuation of the overall Covid deception”
African Americans report higher preventive behaviors than Caucasians – Baylor.edu
As the United States continues its march to vaccinate millions of citizens against COVID-19, marketing researchers from Baylor University’s Hankamer School of Business have discovered a messaging model that motivates people to take preventive actions to battle the virus.
Researchers James Roberts, Ph.D., professor of marketing, and Meredith David, Ph.D., associate professor of marketing, teamed up for their latest study, “The Pandemic within a Pandemic: Testing a Sequential Mediation Model to Better Understand Racial/Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19 Preventive Behavior,” which is published in the journal Healthcare.
The professors found that fear – specifically the fear of COVID-19 – has been the driving factor that motivates people to take preventive measures. Simply put, the message equation is: Fear of COVID-19 plus information receptivity equals preventive behaviors.
“Fear-of-COVID-19 is essential to get people to perform preventive behaviors like mask wearing, social distancing, hand-washing and vaccination,” Roberts said. “If an individual or groups of individuals are not fearful of contracting or getting sick from COVID-19, they are less likely to perform preventive health behaviors. This is why young people are less likely to perform such behaviors.”
The Roberts and David study also found:
- African Americans reported higher preventive behaviors and self-efficacy than Caucasians.
- Socio-economic status may be more important than race in understanding disparities in preventive health behaviors across the three ethnic groups studied.
- Caucasians were found to be more fearful of COVID-19 than African Americans and Hispanics, the latter of which were least afraid of the disease. This led to lower information receptivity (searching for COVID-related information) on the part of Hispanics.
- Hispanic respondents were less receptive and less likely to search for COVID-related information. In contrast, Caucasians searched for more information than Hispanics and African Americans.
IV Aviptadil Shows Benefit in COVID Recovery, Survival – MedPage
Aviptadil (Zyesami), an investigational formulation of vasoactive intestinal peptide delivered by IV infusion, shortened time to recovery and demonstrated a survival benefit for certain critically ill COVID-19 patients versus placebo in a 196-patient randomized trial, manufacturer NeuroRx said in a press release on Monday.
NeuroRx said the drug “met the primary endpoint for successful recovery from respiratory failure” at days 28 and 60 and “demonstrated a meaningful benefit of survival,” though without specific numbers for the primary endpoint.
The primary endpoint of the phase IIb/III trial called COVID-AIV was defined as recovery from respiratory failure without relapse, with discharge from acute care and survival through the observation period. While it was originally intended to be 28 days, the manufacturer said it extended it to 60 days due to recently published FDA guidance.
Specific numbers were given, however, for a subgroup of patients receiving high-flow nasal cannula support (n=127). Those treated with aviptadil acetate had a 71% chance of “successful recovery” by day 28 compared with 48% of those receiving placebo (P=0.017), which increased to a 75% chance of recovery by day 60 versus 55% in the placebo group (P=0.036).
The company also pointed to a survival benefit, saying that 84% of patients in this high flow nasal cannula group receiving the intervention treated at tertiary medical centers survived to day 60 versus 60% of the placebo group (P=0.007).
This is “the first COVID-19 therapeutic to demonstrate advantages in both survival and recovery from critical COVID-19 in a randomized, double-blind multicenter trial,” NeuroRx said, adding that the plan is to apply to the FDA for emergency use authorization for the drug, as well as submit a new drug application.
New Study of Coronavirus Variants Predicts Virus Evolving to Escape Current Vaccines, Treatments – Columbia.edu
A new study of the U.K. and South Africa variants of SARS-CoV-2 predicts that current vaccines and certain monoclonal antibodies may be less effective at neutralizing these variants and that the new variants raise the specter that reinfections could be more likely.
The study was published in Nature(link is external and opens in a new window) on March 8, 2021. A preprint of the study was first posted to BioRxiv(link is external and opens in a new window) on January 26, 2021.
The study’s predictions are now being borne out with the first reported results of the Novavax vaccine, says the study’s lead author David Ho, MD. The company reported(link is external and opens in a new window) on Jan. 28 that the vaccine was nearly 90% effective in the company’s U.K. trial, but only 49.4% effective in its South Africa trial, where most cases of COVID-19 are caused by the B.1.351 variant.
“Our study and the new clinical trial data show that the virus is traveling in a direction that is causing it to escape from our current vaccines and therapies that are directed against the viral spike,” says Ho, the director of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center and the Clyde’56 and Helen Wu Professor of Medicine at Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons.
“If the rampant spread of the virus continues and more critical mutations accumulate, then we may be condemned to chasing after the evolving SARS-CoV-2 continually, as we have long done for influenza virus,” Ho says. “Such considerations require that we stop virus transmission as quickly as is feasible, by redoubling our mitigation measures and by expediting vaccine rollout.”
T cells recognize recent SARS-CoV-2 variants – EurekAlert
When variants of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) emerged in late 2020, concern arose that they might elude protective immune responses generated by prior infection or vaccination, potentially making re-infection more likely or vaccination less effective. To investigate this possibility, researchers from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, and colleagues analyzed blood cell samples from 30 people who had contracted and recovered from COVID-19 prior to the emergence of virus variants. They found that one key player in the immune response to SARS-CoV-2–the CD8+ T cell–remained active against the virus.
… Although details about the exact levels and composition of antibody and T-cell responses needed to achieve immunity to SARS-CoV-2 are still unknown, scientists assume that strong and broad responses from both antibodies and T cells are required to mount an effective immune response. CD8+ T cells limit infection by recognizing parts of the virus protein presented on the surface of infected cells and killing those cells.
In their study of recovered COVID-19 patients, the researchers determined that SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T-cell responses remained largely intact and could recognize virtually all mutations in the variants studied. While larger studies are needed, the researchers note that their findings suggest that the T cell response in convalescent individuals, and most likely in vaccinees, are largely not affected by the mutations found in these three variants, and should offer protection against emerging variants.
Optimal immunity to SARS-Cov-2 likely requires strong multivalent T-cell responses in addition to neutralizing antibodies and other responses to protect against current SARS-CoV-2 strains and emerging variants, the authors indicate. They stress the importance of monitoring the breadth, magnitude and durability of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 T-cell responses in recovered and vaccinated individuals as part of any assessment to determine if booster vaccinations are needed.
Researchers develop broadly neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 ferritin nanoparticle vaccine – News-Medical
The causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the continued need for next-generation vaccines that confer broad protection against COVID-19, scientists developed an adjuvanted SARS-CoV-2 Spike Ferritin Nanoparticle (SpFN) vaccine. The results of its evaluation in nonhuman primates (NHPs) are have been released as a preprint on the bioRxiv* server.
… Ferritin is a naturally occurring, ubiquitous iron storage protein with unique architecture and surface properties; it self-oligomerizes into a 24-unit spherical particle. The three-fold axis symmetry of the resulting polymer makes it conducive to conjugation and display of antigens. Ferritin nanoparticles are used as nanomedicine for drug delivery, and in bioassays and molecular imaging.
Due to its immune potency as a vaccine platform, the ferritin vaccines have already advanced to phase 1 clinical trial to target multiple influenza strains. It is also highly promising with trimeric glycoproteins, such as SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) protein.
The SARS-CoV-2 is coronated with the glycoprotein, Spike (S), consisting of two subunits S1 and S2. The virus attaches to the host cell via the binding of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) on the S protein to the ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2).
Studies are indicative that to confer protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2, both neutralizing and non-neutralizing (some fraction at least) antibodies against S are necessary.
Remote school resulted in ‘significant’ academic learning loss, study finds – CNBC
After a year of school closings and distance learning amid the coronavirus crisis, more than half of public school K-12 teachers said the pandemic resulted in a “significant” learning loss for students, both academically and from a social-emotional standpoint, according to a report by Horace Mann.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also suggested that virtual learning “might present more risks than in-person instruction related to child and parental mental and emotional health and some health-supporting behaviors.”
“The pandemic has taken a toll on our students from an educational perspective, but there are a lot of other impacts happening,” said Kelly Ruwe, an education advocate for Horace Mann, as well as a former kindergarten teacher and a mother of three.
Nearly all — more than 97% — of educators reported seeing some learning loss in their students over the past year when compared with children in previous years, and a majority, or 57%, estimated their students are behind by more than three months in their social-emotional progress, Horace Mann found.
Some teachers suggested these setbacks could be addressed by adding on summer sessions or bringing teacher’s aides into the classroom for one-on-one or small group instruction. Still, nearly one-third expected more students will need to repeat a grade.
World leaders call for international treaty on pandemics, but China and US are absent – CNN
Leaders from more than 20 countries and the World Health Organization have agreed to work towards an international treaty on future pandemics, in a joint letter published in media outlets Tuesday around the world.
The treaty would “greatly” enhance international co-operation to improve research, data-sharing, distribution of vaccines, medicines and personal protective equipment to protect future generations from pandemics, the letter said, adding it would be “rooted in the constitution of the World Health Organization.”
Among signatories were leaders from the UK, Germany and France, and from Africa, leaders from Rwanda, Kenya and South Africa signed the letter. South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia were among Asian signatories, while Chile and Costa Rica were among Latin American countries making the call.
China and the United States were not part of the group.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The WHO’s long-awaited report on SARS-CoV-2’s origin is due out this morning, though its contents were leaked to news services including Reuters.
“We were never pressured to remove critical elements in our report,” WHO scientist says
Initial WHO mission was to examine animal origin of virus — not lab leak, agency’s scientist says
WHO chief calls for further investigation into coronavirus lab leak theory
Germany to restrict AstraZeneca use in under-60s over clots
Canada halting AstraZeneca vaccine shots for people 55 and younger
India had largely dodged the pandemic… until now, it seems.
Ramadan Mass Gatherings Face Restrictions as COVID Surges in Turkey
A day with no Covid deaths in London? Nearly, but not quite.
A wave of infection in Pakistan reaches into senior ranks of the government.
IMF to raise global growth forecasts on U.S. stimulus and Covid vaccination progress
More than 5,000 Covid-19 patients are in ICUs in France – the most in nearly a year
Variants fuel an increase in hospitalizations in Canada
Negative Covid test now needed to enter Germany
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
President Biden urged governors and mayors to keep or reinstate mask mandates, warning that “reckless behavior” had caused the recent rise in coronavirus cases.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the C.D.C., said she was worried the uptick in infections could turn into a fourth wave and implored Americans to “hold on a little while longer.”
New York must offer vaccines to all incarcerated people, a judge ruled.
A joint inquiry by the World Health Organization and China revealed no new insights into how the pandemic began, and it wasn’t clear whether Beijing would allow outside experts to investigate further. “We may never find the true origins,” an expert said.
Baylor women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey says the NCAA should stop COVID testing at both the men’s and women’s tournaments ahead of the Final Four: “Wouldn’t it be a shame to keep COVID testing and you’ve got kids that end up testing positive or something and they don’t get to play in a Final Four?”
President Biden called for governors and mayors nationally to continue or reinstate mask mandates.
Coronavirus cases are rising again in many states, in part because the variants are spreading.
High-fiber diet may play a role in controlling the inflammation associated with COVID-19
COVID-19 pandemic has led to more advanced-stage cancer diagnoses, physician survey finds
Anti-inflammatory drug protects against lethal inflammation from COVID-19 in animal models
Researchers develop novel test that screens for SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern – A team of scientists from the United States has recently developed a single-tube duplex molecular assay for rapid detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants containing E484K and N501Y spike mutations.
Single dose of Pfizer and Oxford vaccines shows 60% efficacy in elderly care home residents
Scientists develop new method to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies
COVID Vaccine Hesitancy Drops Among Americans, New Survey Shows
More Under-30 Americans Report Anxiety, Depression During Pandemic: CDC
COVID-19’s fourth wave is hitting the US hard
Michigan coronavirus surge fueled by spike in cases among younger age groups
U.S. Largest Provider of Single-Family Rent Homes Made Largest Profit Ever
In Vermont, a surge in cases brings the state to numbers that it thought it had left behind.
Social Security, federal beneficiaries can expect $1,400 stimulus checks this weekend
Biden signs extension for Paycheck Protection Program into law
Hollywood’s Universal Studios will reopen for California residents next month
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
March 2021 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Surges To Highest Level In A Year
S and P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index January 2021 Year-over-Year Growth Continues
Did 2020 Change The Workplace Forever?
Did Dealers Fail To Make Markets During The Pandemic?
Pandemic Gathers Steam As New Variants Rise
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 29 March 2021 Up 84 Cents From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. California and New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
- Current thinking is that we develop at least 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
- The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
Treatments with solid scientific support:
- Dexamethasone
- Proning, or turning someone on their stomach
- Remdesivir
- Baricitinib
Treatments with potential but limited evidence:
- ECMO, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
- fluvoxamine
- Cyclosporine
- Famotidine
- Intravenous immunoglobulin
- Ivermectin
- Interferons
Drugs shown to be ineffective:
- The combination of lopinavir-ritonavir
- Hydroxychloroquine
- Insulin
- High dose zinc and vitamin C
- Convalescent plasma
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Tocilizumab
- Anti-coagulants
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no solid evidence yet the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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