Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 695 K to 735 K (consensus 725 K), and the Department of Labor reported 684,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 749,000 (reported last week as 746,250) to 736,000
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 82,920,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 18,952,795, up from last week’s 18,218,933
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 26 % LOWER than one year ago (versus the 220 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending March 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 684,000, a decrease of 97,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 11,000 from 770,000 to 781,000. The 4-week moving average was 736,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,750 from 746,250 to 749,000
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7 percent for the week ending March 13, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 13 was 3,870,000, a decrease of 264,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 10,000 from 4,124,000 to 4,134,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,120,750, a decrease of 137,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,500 from 4,255,500 to 4,258,000.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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