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24 February 2021 Coronavirus Charts and News: More Headlines Ponder the COVID California Variants – Some Say It Opens The Door To A ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Whilst Others Say It Should Not ‘Be Categorized As Variants Of Concern’.

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Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 11.2 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 13.7 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 26.7 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:

  • U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 71,436
  • U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at 55,058
  • U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at 2,350
  • U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 19.4 % of the population
  • The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations worsened, and deaths worsened [note: this is an early sign of trend reversal – could the new variants be impacting COVID case growth?>
  • Moderna designs updated Covid-19 vaccine to combat South Africa coronavirus variant
  • White House officially announces the continuation of Covid-19 national emergency
  • Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose COVID-19 vaccine effective, safe: FDA analysis
  • No, it didn’t originate in Wuhan’s wet market, but it could have been spread by frozen food. Here is what we learned from Phase 1 of the investigation
  • Digital vaccine credentials “absolutely critical” to international travel, trade association says
  • NIH is recommending Lilly’s newly authorized infused antibody cocktail of bamlanivimab plus etesevimab for COVID outpatients with mild-to-moderate disease at risk of progressing to severe disease
  • Fauci says data suggests ‘long’ Covid symptoms can last up to 9 months
  • Chinese Pharmaceutical Makers Seek Approval For New Coronavirus Vaccines
  • No, it didn’t originate in Wuhan’s wet market, but it could have been spread by frozen food. Here is what we learned from Phase 1 of the investigation

The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases is behind us which was attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, and some loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.

My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.

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Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Reporting Is Not Affected By Holidays

The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put the first wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends.

However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.

The hospitalization growth rate trend is improving.

For the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holiday period – roughly, it seems each appears to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.

As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.

The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 for Thanksgiving, and early January 2021 for end of year holidays – and the rate of growth is now contracting.

In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.

It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.


Will The New Variants Cause The Next Spike?

Maybe and maybe not. It all depends on vaccinations:

  • the more people that are vaccinated reduces the pool of people that can be infected. Today we have removed over 19 % of the population from being infected which theoretically should reduce the infection rate by 19 % [it is unstudied whether the vaccines prevent a vaccinated person from being a carrier of the virus even though showing no signs]. If the vaccines are shown to stop transmission, then in theory it would reduce the infection rate by double the percent vaccinated [in this case you prevent your own infection and do not pass it along to another].
  • it is also unknown what the effective rate of the current vaccines is against mutations that seem to appear almost daily. As an example, if the effective rate drops to 60%, it means the 19 % reduction in the infection rate discussed above is almost cut in half. The South African and Brazilian variant is somewhat immune to the current vaccines.
  • The pandemic should be over immediately if everyone could be vaccinated today. The problem is that every day brings a new mutation (which would not appear if the pandemic was stopped). The longer the immunization process takes – the more ineffective the vaccine will become.
  • It is not clear whether the vaccine prevents those vaccinated from spreading the virus. It seems to be well documented that it normally stops the virus from taking hold and when it does not – the infection is mild.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Moderna designs updated Covid-19 vaccine to combat South Africa coronavirus variant – CNN

Moderna has designed an updated version of its Covid-19 vaccine to help it combat the South Africa coronavirus variant, the company announced Wednesday.

Initial doses have been shipped to the US National Institutes of Health for a clinical study.

The new vaccine, called mRNA-1273.351, will be evaluated as a booster shot for people who have already been vaccinated against coronavirus and as a primary vaccine for people who haven’t had coronavirus and have yet to be vaccinated.

Moderna said it will also evaluate a “multivalent” booster shot that combines the new vaccine formulation with the current vaccine.

Additionally, the company said it has begun to test whether a third, lower dose of its current Covid-19 vaccine can increase immunity against coronavirus variants of concern, with some study participants already getting third doses.

On Monday, the US Food and Drug Administration issued new guidance to vaccine makers to address the emergence of coronavirus variants. The agency recommended that data from clinical immunogenicity studies be used to support any changes or updates to vaccines. Such studies would be smaller and could take less time than large-scale clinical trials.

Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency Concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic – White House

On March 13, 2020, by Proclamation 9994, the President declared a national emergency concerning the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause significant risk to the public health and safety of the Nation.

For this reason, the national emergency declared on March 13, 2020, and beginning March 1, 2020, must continue in effect beyond March 1, 2021. Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing the national emergency declared in Proclamation 9994 concerning the COVID-19 pandemic.

This notice shall be published in the Federal Register and transmitted to the Congress.

NIH is recommending Lilly’s newly authorized infused antibody cocktail of bamlanivimab plus etesevimab for COVID outpatients with mild-to-moderate disease at risk of progressing to severe disease. – NIH

Bamlanivimab and etesevimab are neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that bind to different but overlapping epitopes in the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The bamlanivimab plus etesevimab combination blocks SARS-CoV-2 entry into host cells and is being evaluated for the treatment of COVID-19.

On February 9, 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to make bamlanivimab 700 mg plus etesevimab 1,400 mg available for the treatment of outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk for progressing to severe disease and/or hospitalization (see the EUA criteria for use of the products below).1 The issuance of an EUA does not constitute FDA approval of a product.

The FDA previously issued an EUA for bamlanivimab alone and another for the anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody combination casirivimab plus imdevimab, both for use in the same patient population as authorized for bamlanivimab plus etesevimab. See Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Monoclonal Antibodies for detailed descriptions of these other monoclonal antibody options.

The COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel (the Panel) reviewed the clinical trial data included in the EUA for bamlanivimab plus etesevimab as evidence to support its use for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in high-risk outpatients.

Based on the available evidence, the Panel has determined the following:

  • The Panel recommends the use of bamlanivimab 700 mg plus etesevimab 1,400 mg for the treatment of outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are at high risk of clinical progression as defined by the EUA criteria (see below) (BIIa). Treatment should be started as soon as possible after the patient has received a positive result on a SARS-CoV-2 antigen or nucleic acid amplification test and within 10 days of symptom onset. (See the Panel’s rationale for this recommendation below.)
    • It is important to note that the authorized dose of bamlanivimab 700 mg plus etesevimab 1,400 mg is lower than the dose given to participants in the Phase 3 study that provides clinical data in support of this therapy. The authorized dose was extrapolated from data demonstrating its antiviral activity, as well as from in vitro studies and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling (see below).
  • The Panel recommends against the use of bamlanivimab 700 mg plus etesevimab 1,400 mg for patients who are hospitalized because of COVID-19, except in a clinical trial. However, bamlanivimab 700 mg plus etesevimab 1,400 mg should be considered for persons with mild to moderate COVID-19 who are hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19 but who otherwise meet the EUA criteria.2
  • Given the possibility of a limited supply of bamlanivimab plus etesevimab, as well as challenges of distributing and administering the drugs, priority should be given to patients who are at highest risk for COVID-19 progression based on the EUA criteria.3,4
  • Efforts should be made to ensure that communities most affected by COVID-19 have equitable access to bamlanivimab plus etesevimab.
  • Bamlanivimab plus etesevimab should not be withheld from a pregnant individual who has a condition that poses a high risk of progression to severe COVID-19 if the clinician thinks that the potential benefit of the combination outweighs the potential risk (see the EUA criteria for use of bamlanivimab plus etesevimab below).
  • There are insufficient pediatric data to recommend either for or against the use of bamlanivimab plus etesevimab or other monoclonal antibody products for children with COVID-19 who are not hospitalized but who have risk factors for severe disease. Based on adult studies, bamlanivimab plus etesevimab may be considered on a case-by-case basis for children who meet EUA criteria, especially those who meet more than one criterion or are aged ≥16 years. In such cases, consultation with a pediatric infectious disease specialist is recommended.

California’s coronavirus strain looks increasingly dangerous: ‘The devil is already here’ – Los Angeles Times

A coronavirus variant that probably emerged in May and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.

In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic holiday surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UC San Francisco said the cluster of mutations that characterizes the homegrown strain should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.

Californians, along with the rest of the country, have been bracing for an onslaught of the more transmissible strain from the U.K. known as B.1.1.7. But they should know that a rival strain that is probably just as worrisome has already settled in, and will probably account for 90% of the state’s infections by the end of next month, said Dr. Charles Chiu, an infectious diseases researcher and physician at UCSF.

“The devil is already here,” said Chiu, who led a team of geneticists, epidemiologists, statisticians and other scientists in a wide-ranging analysis of the new variant, which they call B.1.427/B.1.429. “I wish it were different. But the science is the science.”

The U.K. and California variants are each armed with enhanced capabilities, and the likelihood that they could circulate in the same population raises the specter of a return to spiking infections and deaths, Chiu said. It also opens the door to a “nightmare scenario”: That the two viruses will meet in a single person, swap their mutations and create an even more dangerous strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The new evidence that the California variant could make people sicker, and vaccines less effective, should spur more intensive efforts to drive down infections, Chiu said. Those should include both public health measures, such as masking and limits on public activities, and a campaign of rapid vaccinations, he added.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, raised a further concern in an interview with The Times. A survival-of-the-fittest contest between the U.K. and California variants could accelerate the spread of the strain that’s best able to elude the effects of COVID-19 vaccines, he said. The best way to prevent this, he added, is to stop the spread of either variant by getting vaccinated, wearing masks and limiting exposure to others.

What We Know About California COVID Variant B.1.427/B.1.429 – Newsweek

[editor’s note: slightly different take than the post above on the same subject of the new California variants]

A new coronavirus variant that was first identified in California is now taking hold in some parts of the state—but what do we currently know about it?

The variant actually comes in two forms, known as B.1.427 and B.1.429, both of which carry a similar, albeit slightly differing, set of genetic mutations—including three that affect the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The spike protein enables the virus to bind on to and enter human cells. One of the mutation that B.1.427 and B.1.429 carry—dubbed L452R—is thought to increase the infectivity of the virus.

Other epidemiological data from nursing home and household settings collected by UCSF researchers supports the hypothesis of higher transmissibility, although B.1.427/B.1.429 may not be as infectious as other variants, such as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the U.K. and has spread widely across the United States.

“I’m increasingly convinced that this one is transmitting more than others locally,” William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who was not involved in the research, told the Times. “But there’s not evidence to suggest that it’s in the same ballpark as B.1.1.7.”

Data from the study regarding COVID-19 patients found an association between B.1.427/B.1.429 and more severe disease. Among more than 300 people with COVID-19 who were cared for at UCSF clinics or its medical center, those infected with the variant were 4.8 times more likely to be admitted to the ICU and 11 times more likely to die than patients with other variants, the study found, according to Science.

But the authors admit it is not possible to conclude from these figures that the variant actually causes more severe disease.

“If I were a reviewer, I would want to see more data from more infected people to substantiate this very provocative claim,” David O’Connor, a virus expert from the University of Wisconsin, Madison, who was also not involved in the research, told Science.

Hanage told Science that, unlike the UCSF scientists, he does not believe B.1.427 and B.1.429 should be categorized as variants of concern based on their study alone.

No, it didn’t originate in Wuhan’s wet market, but it could have been spread by frozen food. Here is what we learned from Phase 1 of the investigation – The Guardian

… This is what we learned about the origins of SARS-CoV-2.

Animal origins, but not necessarily at the Wuhan markets

It was in Wuhan, in central China, that the virus, now called Sars-CoV-2, emerged in December 2019, unleashing the greatest infectious disease outbreak since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

Our investigations concluded the virus was most likely of animal origin. It probably crossed over to humans from bats, via an as-yet-unknown intermediary animal, at an unknown location. Such “zoonotic” diseases have triggered pandemics before. But we are still working to confirm the exact chain of events that led to the current pandemic. Sampling of bats in Hubei province and wildlife across China has revealed no Sars-CoV-2 to date.

We visited the now-closed Wuhan wet market which, in the early days of the pandemic, was blamed as the source of the virus. Some stalls at the market sold “domesticated” wildlife products. These are animals raised for food, such as bamboo rats, civets and ferret badgers. There is also evidence some domesticated wildlife may be susceptible to Sars-CoV-2. However, none of the animal products sampled after the market’s closure tested positive for Sars-CoV-2.

After Covid-19, China brought in new regulations for the trade and consumption of wild animals.

We also know not all of those first 174 early Covid-19 cases visited the market, including the man who was diagnosed in December 2019 with the earliest onset date.

However, when we visited the closed market, it’s easy to see how an infection might have spread there. When it was open, there would have been about 10,000 people visiting a day, in close proximity, with poor ventilation and drainage.

While viruses do escape from laboratories, this is rare. So we concluded it was extremely unlikely this had happened in Wuhan

There’s also genetic evidence generated during the mission for a transmission cluster there as viral sequences from several of the market cases were identical. However, there was some diversity in other viral sequences, implying other unknown or unsampled chains of transmission.

A summary of modelling studies of the time to the most recent common ancestor of Sars-CoV-2 sequences estimated the start of the pandemic between mid-November and early December. There are also publications suggesting Sars-CoV-2 circulation in various countries earlier than the first case in Wuhan, although these require confirmation.

The market in Wuhan, in the end, was more of an amplifying event rather than necessarily a true ground zero. So we need to look elsewhere for the viral origins.

Frozen or refrigerated food not ruled out in the spread

Then there was the “cold chain” hypothesis. This is the idea the virus might have originated from elsewhere via the farming, catching, processing, transporting, refrigeration or freezing of food. Was that food ice-cream, fish, wildlife meat? We don’t know. It’s unproven that this triggered the origin of the virus itself. But to what extent did it contribute to its spread? Again, we don’t know.

Several “cold chain” products present in the Wuhan market were not tested for the virus. Environmental sampling in the market showed viral surface contamination. This may indicate the introduction of Sars-CoV-2 through infected people, or contaminated animal products and “cold chain” products. Investigation of “cold chain” products and virus survival at low temperatures is still under way.

Extremely unlikely the virus escaped from a lab

The most politically sensitive option we looked at was the virus escaping from a laboratory. We concluded this was extremely unlikely.

[editor’s note: also read WHO team finds China did little to investigate coronavirus origins: report]

Biden to Order Review of Pharmaceutical Supply Chain – MedPage

President Biden will sign an executive order Wednesday afternoon directing federal agencies to study ways to secure the supply chain for pharmaceutical products and other manufactured goods, White House officials said Tuesday evening.

“Last year in the early months of the pandemic, we saw shortages of masks, gloves, and other critical personal protective equipment (PPE),” a senior administration official told reporters in a background briefing. “President Biden committed last year to directing the U.S. to take a comprehensive approach to securing supply chains, and the executive order the president will sign tomorrow afternoon kicks off that process.”

“This is the first whole-of government approach to promoting the resilience of America’s supply chains, from pharmaceuticals to foods,” the official continued. “We’re going to get out of the business of reacting to supply chain crises as they arise, and get into the business of getting ahead of future supply chain problems.”

The executive order will direct 100-day reviews of supply chains for four critical sets of products: computer chips for items such as cars and phones; large-capacity batteries like those used in electric cars; pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) — “so we’re not dependent on foreign competitors for key medical drugs and their inputs”; and critical minerals such as rare-earth minerals, the official said.

Chinese Pharmaceutical Makers Seek Approval For New Coronavirus Vaccines – NPR

Chinese pharmaceutical makers are seeking market approval from Beijing for two new coronavirus vaccines – one that has shown 72% efficacy and another 69% efficacy in human Phase III trials.

The separate announcements on Wednesday come from Sinopharm for its second vaccine after the state-run company’s first was approved for distribution in December, and from CanSino Biologics, Inc. (CanSinoBIO), for its first vaccine.

Another vaccine, produced by Beijing-based Sinovac, received market approval earlier this month, although it – like Sinopharm’s first vaccine — had been in use since July on an emergency basis.

Unlike the revolutionary mRNA vaccines developed in the West by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, which use a piece of the virus’ genetic code to trigger an immune response, three of the four Chinese vaccines are based on a more conventional approach that uses an inactivated form of the coronavirus.

The fourth – the one made by CanSinoBIO – is a single-dose vaccine that is based around a technique called viral vector, which uses a modified version of a different virus as a vector to deliver instructions to a cell. China is also reportedly working on its own mRNA vaccine.

One advantage for the Chinese vaccines already approved or seeking market approval is that they can be stored at room temperature, while the Moderna vaccine must be stored at -20 degrees Celsius (-4 degrees Fahrenheit) and the Pfizer vaccine at -70 C (-94 F), nearly as cold as dry ice.

Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose COVID-19 vaccine effective, safe: FDA analysis – The Hill

Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose coronavirus vaccine is effective at preventing moderate and severe cases of COVID-19, according to an analysis of the trial data published by the Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday.

The company’s single dose vaccine is 66 percent effective, well within the agency’s standards. The vaccine is also safe to use, according to the analysis.

More specifically, the vaccine is more than 85 percent effective at preventing severe cases of COVID-19 and completely prevents hospitalizations and deaths.

Overall, there were seven deaths in the trial, all in the placebo group.

The company initially announced the 66 percent effectiveness in a press release last month but had not yet released trial results.

The information was published ahead of an FDA advisory committee meeting Friday, which will debate whether to grant the vaccine emergency authorization. The promising data gives hope that a third coronavirus vaccine could be authorized as soon as this weekend.

While the other coronavirus vaccines already on the market may appear to be more effective than Johnson & Johnson’s, experts say it is difficult to compare them head-to-head.

The vaccine was tested in a 44,000-person clinical trial across the U.S., Brazil and South Africa geographic regions, all of which have seen mutated versions of the virus.

There was a lower efficacy against moderate to severe/critical disease endpoints observed in South Africa compared to the United States and Brazil, but vaccine efficacy against severe or critical COVID-19 infections was “similarly high in all 3 countries,” the review found.

Still, the varying efficacy is a warning sign about mutations, especially from the variant found in South Africa. The effectiveness against moderate to severe illness dropped from 72 percent in the United States to 57 percent in South Africa, where a new coronavirus variant is prevalent.

The vaccine was less effective in a subgroup of adults older than 60 with underlying conditions, but regulators noted there were no deaths or cases requiring medical intervention a month after those older adults received vaccines.

The most frequently reported local adverse reaction was injection site pain, which was reported more by younger participants aged 18 to 59 than people older than 60.

[editor’s note: White House to ship 3 million to 4 million doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine to states and White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the administration was “surprised” when Johnson & Johnson told them they were behind on manufacturing. CNN has reported the initial number of doses was expected to be closer to 10 million, and Covid-19 coordinator Jeff Zients said Wednesday it would be between 3 and 4 million.] [editor’s note: The Johnson & Johnson vaccine might prevent Covid-19 infection without symptoms starting at about four weeks, according to the US Food and Drug Administration’s briefing document on the vaccine released Wednesday. Earlier studies from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have shown that most coronavirus cases are spread by people without symptoms. If a vaccine prevented asymptomatic infection, it might help reduce opportunities to transmit the disease – not just keep the vaccinated from getting sick.]

Digital vaccine credentials “absolutely critical” to international travel, trade association says – CNN

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is calling on governments around the world to start issuing digital vaccine credentials to support a successful restart of international travel once borders re-open.

“It’s absolutely critical that we start issuing digital vaccine credentials,” IATA’s Head of Airport Passenger & Security Products, Alan Murray Hayden, said on Wednesday.

“Many airports are really operating at capacity at the moment, even though they are only carrying 10% of the normal volumes of passengers. And that’s simply because of the amount of time it currently takes to check all the bits of paper that a passenger needs to have. It takes so much time that we simply won’t be able to reopen in a sustainable way,” he added.

IATA’s Travel Pass, an app developed by the International Air Transport Association directly connects passengers with their Covid-19 test results from the labs, is one option airlines are piloting to process Covid data digitally.

IATA is scheduling to fully roll out its Travel Pass at the end of March, which is currently being trialed with 20 airlines around the world.

“Governments have been introducing quarantines; however vaccine and testing is the way in which we’re going to exit from the requirements for people to quarantine and the IATA travel pass will enable people to do that,” Hayden said.

IATA warned that the industry is still suffering from the current restrictions still in place for international travelers predicting that airlines will burn through up to $95 billion during 2021.

Fauci says data suggests ‘long’ Covid symptoms can last up to 9 months – CNBC

New data suggests that people with Covid-19 can continue to suffer from symptoms for months after the initial infection, White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci told reporters.

Researchers at the University of Washington recently found that 30% of patients reported symptoms for as long as nine months, he said. Symptoms of “long Covid,” which researchers are now calling Post-Acute Sequelae of Covid-19, or PASC, can develop “well after” infection, and severity can range from mild to “incapacitating,” he said.

“The magnitude of the problem is not fully known,” Fauci said, adding PASC was also reported in people who did not require hospitalizations or people who had symptoms that were not part of their initial infection.

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Pfizer has allegedly been playing hardball during negotiations with some Latin American countries wanting to buy its coronavirus vaccine.

COVID-19 during pregnancy is not linked to stillbirth or baby death, though it may be linked to premature birth, U.K. researchers found.

Colombia has approved emergency use of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine.

The U.K. is making a push for requiring vaccine passports for international travel.

Ghana Becomes First Country To Get COVAX Vaccine Doses

French COVID-19 Intensive Care Patients at a 12-Week High

France’s health minister announced that the city of Dunkirk in northern France and its surrounding region, an area of 250,000 people, will be put under a new weekend lockdown starting this Friday night.

AstraZeneca to Miss Second-Quarter EU Vaccine Supply Target by Half: EU Official

Thailand begins importing vaccines, starting with one from China.

São Paulo, Brazil, will begin a statewide curfew this Friday, the state’s governor, João Doria, announced today.

WHO reports sixth consecutive week of declining global coronavirus cases

The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Superspreading events are tragic, but they may give scientists clues about how to contain the virus.

Where the pandemic-era labor market booms and busts are

Pfizer, Moderna, J&J pledge 240 million total Covid-19 vaccine doses by the end of March

A Navy sailor in Norfolk, Virginia died of COVID-19, marking the military’s 23rd death from the virus.

Pharmacists say “pooling” leftover vaccine could help stretch the limited supply.

700M Doses Expected by July, If J&J Vax Authorized

Reporters covering Harris sent home after one tests positive for COVID-19

Czech leader: ‘Hellish days await us’ as virus cases strain hospitals

White House to send 25 million masks to health centers, food pantries

Serious COVID Vaccine Side Effects Still Rare As 65 Million Shots Given

Domestic violence has increased during the pandemic, studies show.

The coronavirus can sicken children in very different ways, a new study finds.

More than 150 CEOs call on Congress to pass Biden’s Covid stimulus package

Drugmakers are ramping up Covid vaccines after fixing manufacturing delays

Novavax expects to apply for authorization for Covid-19 vaccine in the second quarter of 2021

Dr. Anthony Fauci said he hopes that therapeutic approaches to treating long Covid could come from medications already available, but the newly announced initiative to study on long Covid may provide answers.

A study published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine on Wednesday found that people who tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies were at a decreased risk of coronavirus infection compared with those who tested negative for antibodies. “The results from the study are basically a 10-fold reduction, but I would have caveats around that. In other words, it could be an overestimate of the reduction, it could be an underestimate of the reduction,” said Dr. Douglas Lowy, principal deputy director of the National Cancer Institute, who was an author of the study.

Two studies published Wednesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention linked Covid-19 outbreaks over the summer in Chicago and Hawaii to exercise facilities. The reports suggest that mask use may be a key mitigation strategy in these settings.

Philippines offers to send health care workers to the UK and Germany, in return for vaccine doses

More than 2,400 doses of vaccine in Tennessee’s most populous county went to waste over the past month while local officials sat on tens of thousands of shots that they thought had already gone into arms, the state’s top health official said.

Disney cancels cruises until June

Moderna has shipped 55 million Covid-19 doses to US

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

January 2021 Headline New Home Sales Again Improved

January 2021 Trucking Improved

February Regional Business Surveys Find Widespread Supply Disruptions

Warning to Readers

The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore.

I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.

Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data

There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:

  • The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
  • Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
  • COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
  • From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
  • Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
  • There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
  • Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.

What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.

  • How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
  • Masks do work. Unfortunately, early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.
  • Current thinking is that we develop 5 months of immunity from further COVID infection.
  • The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an effectiveness rate of about 95 percent after two doses. That is on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. The 95 percent number understates the effectivenessas it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, only one contracted a severe Covid case.
  • To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
  • The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
  • Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
  • Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
  • Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
  • It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
  • Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
  • Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
  • Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
    and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work?
  • Arthritis drugs tocilizumab and sarilumab could cut relative risk of death of those in intensive care by 24%

  • A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].

There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:

  • how effective it will be in the general population,
  • will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
  • how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
  • there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission

Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:

  • they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
  • they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
  • few have health insurance
  • they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
  • some reports say half are undocumented
  • they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
  • they do not have access to sanitation when working
  • a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm

The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:

Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.

There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.

Resources:

  • Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
  • Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
  • Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
  • List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad

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