Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 14.2 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. hospitalizations due to COVID-19 are now 3.9 % HIGHER than the rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 13.5 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. Today’s posts include:
- U.S. Coronavirus New Cases are 229,042
- U.S. Coronavirus hospitalizations are at a record 125,220 (for the next 9 days this is the number to watch as new cases and deaths will not be accurately reported)
- U.S. Coronavirus deaths are at a record 3,744
- U.S. Coronavirus immunizations have been administered to 0.8% of the population
- The 7-day rolling average rate of growth of the pandemic shows new cases worsened, hospitalizations unchanged, and deaths improved
- California Second State To See Confirmed Case Of UK COVID Mutation
- 40% of LA’s Front-Line Workers Declined COVID Vaccine
- More COVID Variants Expected on U.S. Shores
- New Evidence COVID-19 Invades the Brain
- The next pandemic to strike humanity could be even more devastating than covid-19
- The Most Appalling COVID-19 Lie In 2020
- Covid “Mutation” Stories Show That The Lockdowns Are Designed To Last Forever
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to college/university, cooler weather causing more indoor activities, possible mutation of the virus, fatigue from wearing masks / social distancing, holiday activities, political rallies / voting, and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands (especially after using the toilet as COVID first sheds in your stool), putting down the toilet seat (as flushing the toilet releases a plume), wear masks, avoid crowds, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and the evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally safe if you can maintain social distance. Finally, studies show eating right (making sure you are supporting your immune system) and adequate sleep increase your ability to fight off COVID.
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Hospitalizations (grey line) and Mortality (green line)
source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
The Impact of Holidays – Hospitalizations Are The Only Accurate Gauge As Most Reporting Is Not Timely
The 4 day Thanksgiving holiday period put a wobble in the trends. Over weekends and holidays, the number of new cases and deaths decline. Over weekends, this is not a problem for week-over-week rolling averages as weekends are compared against the previous weekend. But when a holiday falls within a working week, a non-working day is compared to a working day which causes havok in the trends. Now we are faced with the end of the year holiday season which means reporting is sporadic and numbers will initially look good – and then as the holidays end and the reporting catches up, the numbers will look terrible. In addition, family gatherings and travel will cause more virus transmission.
However, hospitalizations historically appear to be little affected by weekends or holidays – the daily counts do not vary significantly from day-to-day.
The hospitalization growth rate trend is growing at an ever slowing growth rate which is all good news as it means the number of beds needed is currently growing around 4 % every week.
The above graph demonstrates in the last week hospitalization rate of growth has been relatively steady. We have seen that the size of the impact of commingling and travel over the Thanksgiving holiday period – roughly, it seems to have added around 5 % to the rate of growth of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Historically, hospitalization growth follows new case growth by one to two weeks.
As an analyst, I use the rate of growth to determine the trend. But, the size of the pandemic is growing in terms of real numbers – and if the rate of growth does not become negative – the pandemic will overwhelm all resources.
The graph below shows the rate of growth relative to the growth a week earlier updated through today [note that negative numbers mean the rolling averages are LOWER than the rolling averages one week ago]. As one can see, the rate of growth for new cases peaked in early December 2020 ago and the rate of growth has been decelerating since.
This graph is currently demonstrating that the actions to contain the pandemic are slightly working – but the rate of growth improvement is too slow as we are still seeing some record numbers. In the scheme of things, new cases decline first, followed by hospitalizations, and then deaths.
It is up to each of our readers to protect themselves and others by washing your hands, wearing a mask, avoiding crowds, and maintaining social distancing.
Likely There Will Be A Pandemic Surge After New Years
The “experts” will tell you they told you so – and you should have stayed at home instead of traveling to be with the people you care about. And there is some truth in this opinion.
But there will be no way to accurately understand the impact of the holidays because there are new mutant strains of the coronavirus that are more transmissible.
To gauge the impact of anything, you change ONLY ONE variable at a time (and hopefully in a controlled environment). There are now two variables in play – and it is nearly impossible to separate the impact of each.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
The Most Appalling COVID-19 Lie – YouTube
New Evidence COVID-19 Invades the Brain – Medscape
SARS-CoV-2 can invade the brain and directly act on brain cells, causing neuroinflammation, new animal research suggests.
Investigators injected spike 1 (S1), which is found on the tufts of the “red spikes” of the virus, into mice and found that it crossed the blood-brain barrier (BBB) and was taken up not only by brain regions and the brain space but also by other organs — specifically, the lungs, spleen, liver, and kidneys.
“We found that the S1 protein, which is the protein COVID-19 uses to ‘grab onto’ cells, crosses the BBB and is a good model of what the virus does when it enters the brain,” lead author William A. Banks, MD, professor of medicine, the University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington, told Medscape Medical News.
“When proteins such as the S1 protein become detached from the virus, they can enter the brain and cause mayhem, causing the brain to release cytokines, which, in turn, cause inflammation and subsequent neurotoxicity,” said Banks, who is also associate chief of staff and a researcher at the Puget Sound Veterans Affairs Healthcare System.
The study was published online December 16 in Nature Neuroscience.
Microvascular Injury of Brain, Olfactory Bulbs Seen in COVID-19 – Medscape
Multifocal microvascular injury in the brain and olfactory bulbs is another possible adverse outcome from COVID-19, new research suggests.
Postmortem MRI brain scans of 13 patients who died from COVID-19 showed abnormalities in 10 of the participants.
Of these, 9 showed punctate hyperintensities, “which represented areas of microvascular injury and fibrinogen leakage,” the investigators report. Immunostaining also showed a thinning of the basal lamina in 5 of these patients.
Further analyses showed punctate hypointensities linked to congested blood vessels in 10 patients. These areas were “interpreted as microhemorrhages,” the researchers note.
Interestingly, there was no evidence of viral infection, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).
“These findings may inform the interpretation of changes observed on [MRI] of punctate hyperintensities and linear hypointensities in patients with COVID-19,” write Myoung-Hwa Lee, PhD, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, Bethesda, Maryland, and colleagues.
The findings were published online December 30 in a “correspondence” piece in the New England Journal of Medicine.
California Second State To See Confirmed Case Of UK COVID Mutation – AP
California on Wednesday announced the nation’s second confirmed case of the new and apparently more contagious variant of the coronavirus, offering a strong indication that the infection is spreading more widely in the United States.
Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the infection found in Southern California during an online conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
“I don’t think Californians should think that this is odd. It’s to be expected,” Fauci said.
Newsom did not provide any details about the person who was infected.
The announcement came 24 hours after word of the first reported U.S. variant infection, which emerged in Colorado. That person was identified Wednesday as a Colorado National Guardsman who had been sent to help out at a nursing home struggling with an outbreak. Health officials said a second Guard member may have it too.
The cases triggered a host of questions about how the version circulating in England arrived in the U.S. and whether it is too late to stop it now, with top experts saying it is probably already spreading elsewhere in the United States.
The Great 2020 Seasonal Flu/Influenza Disappearing Act – ZeroHedge
[editor’s note: this post is pushing the view that many COVID cases are actually the flu. Could be or maybe there is another explanation. But the “experts” are not digging into this anomaly. A good post to read if you are into conspiracy]
And here’s 2020…
Covid “Mutation” Stories Show That The Lockdowns Are Designed To Last Forever – Alt-Market
For many months now I have been warning that the design behind the pandemic lockdowns is a perpetual one; meaning, the lockdowns are MEANT to last forever. We can see this in the very commentary of the establishment elites that are pushing for the mandates; their most frequent argument being that the pandemic restrictions are the “new normal”. This assertion is outlined by globalists like Gideon Lichfield of MIT in his article ‘We’re Not Going Back To Normal’. In it he states:
“Ultimately, however, I predict that we’ll restore the ability to socialize safely by developing more sophisticated ways to identify who is a disease risk and who isn’t, and discriminating—legally—against those who are.
…one can imagine a world in which, to get on a flight, perhaps you’ll have to be signed up to a service that tracks your movements via your phone. The airline wouldn’t be able to see where you’d gone, but it would get an alert if you’d been close to known infected people or disease hot spots. There’d be similar requirements at the entrance to large venues, government buildings, or public transport hubs. There would be temperature scanners everywhere, and your workplace might demand you wear a monitor that tracks your temperature or other vital signs. Where nightclubs ask for proof of age, in future they might ask for proof of immunity—an identity card or some kind of digital verification via your phone, showing you’ve already recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus strains.”
In my article ‘Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society’, I dismantled Lichfield’s arguments and outlined why the controls the establishment is attempting to put in place have been planned far in advance. The so-called “great reset” and “Fourth Industrial Revolution” has been in development since at least 2014 when the terms were first being injected into the mainstream economic media. The ideas of a cashless society, the “sharing economy”, biometric mass surveillance, social credit scores, etc, have all been part of the globalist agenda for decades. The coronavirus is merely a useful crisis for them to exploit as a rationale for the draconian measures they have always wanted.
The plan was so predictable that I even pointed out at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak that lockdowns would not end even if a working vaccination was developed because all they have to do is declare that a “new mutation” of the virus has been found which is resistant to existing treatments. Or, they could engineer a whole new virus and release it into the population in order to keep the Reset machine rolling forward.
Not surprisingly, just as news hit the wires that the barely tested and highly suspect Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were being released to the public, reports have begun to trickle in of “more infectious” Covid mutations found in places like the UK, India and South Africa.
I’m not sure how much more transparent the elites can get.
[editor’s note: Another conspiracy post. You may want to continue reading. In a vacuum of information and transparency, most people assume darkness and evil intentions are driving the events. I personally like to store opinion like this and await an event or data to prove or disprove the thesis. ]
You Think Covid-19 Is Bad? – Gizmodo
Experts with the World Health Organization issued a somber warning on Monday: The next pandemic to strike humanity could be even more devastating than covid-19 has been, especially if we don’t learn our lessons this time around.
The warning came from Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, during a press briefing yesterday—the last to be held by the WHO this year. Ryan noted that while the covid-19 pandemic has certainly been very severe, it wasn’t “necessarily the big one” that experts have been dreading. Rather, it should be seen more as a wake-up call.
“The planet is fragile. We live in an increasingly complex global society,” Ryan said. “These threats will continue.”
… It wouldn’t take much for the next pandemic germ to be more destructive than covid-19, though. The next pandemic could be 10 times deadlier and still only have a fatality rate in the single digits, while remaining as easily transmissible.
Pandemics are inevitable, but we’re not helpless against them. The record-setting development of effective covid-19 vaccines in less than a year shows that much at least. At the same time, the delayed and often inadequate response to contain the pandemic by many countries this year also shows that there’s much room for improvement.
“If there is one thing we need to take from this pandemic, with all of the tragedy and loss, is we need to get our act together. We need to get ready for something that may even be more severe,” said Ryan.
More COVID Variants Expected on U.S. Shores – MedPage
Exactly how many variants have emerged so far is “impossible to answer,” because it depends on how you set the threshold of how different a virus needs to be to represent a variant, said Gregory Armstrong, MD, director of the CDC’s Advanced Molecular Detection Program.
The government has been working on a strain surveillance system since November with two national labs to analyze genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 samples from around the country to determine penetrance of the newly identified variants. Armstrong said findings are expected over the next few days.
How well the vaccines and other treatments will work against these variants can’t be known for sure yet. One study posted on the preprint server medRxiv suggested that convalescent plasma doesn’t work as well against variants.
However, “from what we know from experience with this mutation and other mutations is it is unlikely to have a large impact on vaccine-induced immunity or existing immunity from previous strains,” Armstrong said.
“We do know that some of these mutations can result in reduced efficacy of monoclonal antibodies,” which bind one particular portion of the target antigen, Armstrong noted. But immune responses stemming from infection or vaccines recognize multiple parts of the spike protein, he added.
40% of LA’s Front-Line Workers Declined COVID Vaccine – Newsweek
Up to 40 percent of front-line workers in Los Angeles County have refused to take the coronavirus vaccine at a time when intensive care units across the county reach full capacity.
According to public health officials, between 20 and 40 percent of L.A. County front-line workers who were given priority access to the COVID-19 vaccine have declined to take it, The Los Angeles Times reported.
In some hospitals, up to 50 percent of health care staff have turned down the coronavirus jab. The issue is so prevalent that hospitals and public officials have met to strategize how best to distribute the unused doses.
Though coronavirus vaccines have been widely proven to be safe and effective through trials of tens of thousands of participants, skepticism remains high among even those in the health care community.
“I’m choosing the risk—the risk of having COVID, or the risk of the unknown of the vaccine,” April Lu, a 31-year-old nurse at Providence Holy Cross Medical Center told the LA Times.
“I think I’m choosing the risk of COVID. I can control that and prevent it a little by wearing masks, although not 100 percent for sure.”
Vaccine expert says US government should be holding mass vaccination events to ramp up response – CNN
Dr. Paul Offit, a member of the US Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee, said that the United States needs to step up its vaccination response.
While it is “remarkable what we’ve done over the past year,” Offit told CNN of the vaccination rollout requires a “Manhattan Project-like response.”
More than 2.7 million doses of the vaccine have been administered, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a long way from the 20 million vaccinations that officials had promised by the end of the year.
There should be mass vaccination events in the US, Offit said on CNN’s “New Day.”
“Do we have it in us to do these kind of mass vaccination campaign events? Of course we do. We just need to get it together to do that. And we do need money to do that. I mean, the federal government does need to step up their response to vaccination in the same way that they stepped up the response to making the vaccine,” said Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The British government will use its initial vaccine supply to give as many people as possible a first dose, rather than holding back half the supply for second doses. The approach expands the number of people who can be quickly inoculated, but it could make the shots less effective.
Some doctors in Britain plan to defy instructions to delay vaccine booster shots.
The UK Covid-19 variant is more transmissible and affects more people under 20, new research shows
China identifies first case of COVID-19 variant
China to provide free vaccines to all citizens
China has administered 3 million doses of coronavirus vaccines since December 15
Venezuela signs contract to acquire doses of Russian coronavirus vaccine
A New Year’s speech by Merkel focuses on the pandemic and the dire situation in Germany.
Ecuador will receive 4 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine
Portugal reports record daily Covid-19 infections ahead of New Year’s Eve
Czech Republic reports record daily infections
Australian states will shut borders again as local transmission grows in NSW and Victoria
The following additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Texas AG sues Austin over New Year’s weekend bar, restaurant restrictions
With the new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus detected in Colorado and California, scientists fear it has already gained a toehold in the U.S. The variant’s arrival also makes it all the more important that Americans receive vaccinations in great numbers, and more quickly, scientists said.
Around 2.6 million Americans have received their first dose, the C.D.C. said, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of 2020.
Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, said there was “no realistic path” for the Senate to pass a stand-alone bill increasing direct stimulus payments to $2,000, effectively killing the prospect for now.
Cities helping renters get right to lawyers in housing court
Trump’s push for $2K stimulus checks hits dead end in Senate
Getting COVID-19 vaccine into the arms of Americans is off to a slow start; why the holdup?
A now-fired Wisconsin healthcare employee is under investigation by the FBI for intentionally spoiling more than 500 vaccine doses by removing them from a refrigerator.
The ball is dropping in Times Square, but that might be the only normal thing about the New Year’s Eve celebration in the heart of New York City. Here’s what Times Square will look like tonight.
The West Virginia National Guard says it accidentally injected 42 people with Regeneron Antibody instead of a Moderna coronavirus vaccine. Medical experts with the Joint Interagency Task Force said they don’t believer there is a “risk of harm.” The antibody is used in treating some cases of the virus. Major General James Hoyer said the guard “immediately reviewed and strengthened our protocols.”
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine expressed concern about the roughly 60% of nursing home employees who have refused to take the COVID-19 vaccine.
Florida Rep.-elect Elvira Salazar tests positive for COVID-19
De Blasio says New York City on pace to hit 1 million vaccinations by end of January
145 employees infected by coronavirus outbreak at Washington state Costco
McConnell’s Right – The $2000 Checks Are a Bad Idea
Sanders Launches Offensive on McConnell Over $2,000 Stimulus Checks
Food Workers Allegedly Fired for Refusing to Work With COVID Positive Chef
California Casket Builder Running Out of Wood for Coffins Amid COVID Spike
N.Y. Gov. Cuomo Plans to Attend Buffalo Bills Playoff Game After COVID Test
States are shutting down prisons and moving inmates because guards have fallen ill.
While the state’s regional stay-at-home order for the Bay Area is set to expire on Jan. 8, San Francisco announced that it does not expect the region to meet the state’s threshold of an intensive care unit bed capacity above 15%.
Cleveland Browns close team facility for second straight day due to positive Covid-19 tests
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
26 December 2020 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Improves
26 December 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Again Worsens
SARS. Swine Flu. Covid-19. All 3 Were A Screaming “Buy!”
Bills, Debts Top Uses For Stimulus Checks
How Catalytic Events Change The Course Of History
The Fractal Biology Of Plague And The Future Of Civilization
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19 when recovering from COVID-19. Herd immunity does not look like an option without immunization although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a significantly higher death rate as there is relatively few hospitalizations and deaths in younger age groups..
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
What we do or do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity. However, How Many Americans Are Immune From COVID? Research into the coronavirus is running way behind the need for answers. Whilst we strive for herd immunity through vaccination – we lack an understanding of the general immunity people might have to the pandemic. This will affect the point herd immunity can be reached. The following articles discuss immunity: Can the Common Cold Help Protect You from COVID-19?, Does the Common Cold Protect You from COVID-19?, Immune cells for the common cold may recognize SARS-CoV-2
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission? Research early in the pandemic suggested that the rate of asymptomatic infections could be as high as 81%. But a meta-analysis, which included 13 studies involving 21,708 people, calculated the rate of asymptomatic presentation to be 17%.
- The accuracy of rapid testing is questioned – and the more accurate test results are not being given in a timely manner.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are a minor source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- Air conditioning contributes to the pandemic spread.
- It appears that there is increased risk of infection and mortality for those living in larger occupancy households.
- Male patients have almost three times the odds of requiring intensive treatment unit (ITU) admission compared to females.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only remdesivir, Bamlanivimab,
and Regeneron) are approved for treatment. What drugs work? - A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
There is now a vaccine available – the questions remain:
- how effective it will be in the general population,
- will there be any permanent side effects that will appear months from now,
- how long immunity will last [we can currently say we do not know if it will last more than 4 months],
- there is no evidence the vaccine will block transmission
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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