Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average continues to set new records – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 22 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 23 %). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon (today deaths were near the lower end of the range seen in the last few weeks). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- More Than Half Of COVID-19 Patients In New Study Have Heart Damage
- 5.4 million Americans have lost health insurance in coronavirus-driven recession
- Latin American coronavirus deaths overtake North American fatalities
- Quest Diagnostics Media Statement about Delays In Getting COVID-19 Test Results
- My patient caught Covid-19 twice
- Pandemic Hammers Big Banks
- Small businesses in the U.S. are shuttering as owners face a second round of lockdown
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should have begun to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have begun spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms. Also, their is reason to believe that duplicate positive tests on a person will result in multiple new cases.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 14 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 14 July 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 58,114 | 3,360,000 | 189,425 | 13,080,000 | 30.7% | 25.7% |
Deaths** | 400 | 135,605 | 3,923 | 572,662 | 10.2% | 23.7% |
Mortality Rate | 0.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.20* | 121.70* |
* as of 12 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
More Than Half Of COVID-19 Patients In New Study Have Heart Damage – ZeroHedge
While the mortality rate from COVID-19 is far lower than initially projected, the disease can leave people with a bevy of health problems of unknown duration; from fatigue, to lingering respiratory issues, to loss of taste and smell.
Now, we can add heart damage to the list of common post-COVID complications, according to a new study.
The long and short of it: Older individuals with pre-existing heart issues, or those with ‘sleeper’ heart conditions which have gone undiagnosed, are at the most risk.
While we’ve known since at least February that coronavirus was suspected of causing – or contributing to – cardiac problems, the extent has been largely unknown. In April, The Harvard Gazette detailed the “multiple ways” COVID-19 may spark cardiac damage;
First, people with preexisting heart disease are at a greater risk for severe cardiovascular and respiratory complications from COVID-19. Similarly, research has shown that infection with the influenza virus poses a more severe threat for people with heart disease than those without cardiac problems. Research also shows that heart attacks can actually be brought on by respiratory infections such as the flu.
Second, people with previously undiagnosed heart disease may be presenting with previously silent cardiac symptoms unmasked by the viral infection. In people with existing heart-vessel blockages, infection, fever, and inflammation can destabilize previously asymptomatic fatty plaques inside the heart vessels. Fever and inflammation also render the blood more prone to clotting, while also interfering with the body’s ability to dissolve clots — a one-two punch akin to throwing gasoline on smoldering embers. –The Harvard Gazette
5.4 million Americans have lost health insurance in coronavirus-driven recession, analysis finds – Baltimore Sun
The coronavirus pandemic stripped an estimated 5.4 million American workers of their health insurance between February and May, a stretch in which more adults became uninsured because of job losses than have ever lost coverage in a single year, according to a new analysis.
The study, to be announced Tuesday by the nonpartisan consumer advocacy group Families USA, found that the estimated increase in uninsured workers from February to May was nearly 40% higher than the highest previous increase, which occurred during the recession of 2008 and 2009, when 3.9 million adults lost insurance.
Latin American coronavirus deaths overtake North American fatalities – Reuters
The number of deaths from the coronavirus in Latin America has exceeded the figure for North America for the first time since the start of the pandemic, a Reuters count showed on Monday.
Latin America had by Monday seen at least 144,680 deaths so far, compared to 143,847 deaths in North America – comprising Canada and the United States – according to Reuters figures, which are based on official counts.
The first confirmed cases of the virus in the Americas came within a day of each other in late February, first in Canada and then the United States and Mexico.
Initially, the United States and Canada suffered a more rapid escalation in reported case numbers.
Fewer Americans report self-quarantining now than any point since the start of the pandemic according to our latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index. This corresponds with socializing and commercial activity remaining high, if not quite to pre-pandemic levels. However, more Americans see returning to a pre-coronavirus life as a large risk now than at any time since the high-point of the initial wave in mid-April.
New U.S. health crisis looms as patients without COVID-19 delay care – Reuters
With U.S. coronavirus infections reaching new heights, doctors and hospitals say they are also seeing sharp declines in patients seeking routine medical care and screenings – and a rise in those who have delayed care for so long they are far sicker than they otherwise would be.
“I had one lady who had delayed for five days coming in with abdominal pain that was getting worse and worse,” said Dr. Diana Fite, who practices emergency medicine in Houston. “When she finally came in, she had a ruptured appendix.”
After the pandemic was declared a national emergency in March, many states banned non-essential medical procedures, and the number of patients seeking care for other ailments took a nosedive. Hospitals and medical practices were hit hard financially.
Emergency department use dropped by 42% during the first 10 weeks of the pandemic despite a rise in patients presenting with symptoms of the coronavirus, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. In the same period, patients seeking care for heart attacks dropped by 23% and stroke care by 20%.
Quest Diagnostics Media Statement about COVID-19 Testing – Quest
Despite our rapid scaling up of capacity, soaring demand for COVID-19 molecular diagnostic tests across the United States is slowing the time in which we can provide test results.
We attribute this demand primarily to the rapid, continuing spread of COVID-19 infections across the nation but particularly in the South, Southwest and West regions of the country. Specific drivers of demand include pre-operative patients undergoing procedures in hospitals and surgery centers; high-risk populations, such as those receiving care in federally qualified healthcare centers, nursing homes and correctional facilities; and individuals seeking testing from community drive/walk through events with government agencies and corporations.
We now have capacity to perform up to 125,000 molecular diagnostic tests a day, roughly double our capacity 8 weeks ago. By the end of July, we expect to have the capacity to perform 150,000 molecular diagnostic tests a day.
Despite that dramatic increase, demand for testing is increasing even faster. As a result, our average turnaround time* for reporting test results is slightly more than 1 day for our priority 1 patients.** However, our average turnaround time for all other populations is 7 or more days.
My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes? – VOX
“Wait. I can catch Covid twice?” my 50-year-old patient asked in disbelief. It was the beginning of July, and he had just tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.
While there’s still much we don’t understand about immunity to this new illness, a small but growing number of cases like his suggest the answer is yes.
Covid-19 may also be much worse the second time around. During his first infection, my patient experienced a mild cough and sore throat. His second infection, in contrast, was marked by a high fever, shortness of breath, and hypoxia, resulting in multiple trips to the hospital.
Recent reports and conversations with physician colleagues suggest my patient is not alone. Two patients in New Jersey, for instance, appear to have contracted Covid-19 a second time almost two months after fully recovering from their first infection. Daniel Griffin, a physician and researcher at Columbia University in New York, recently described a case of presumed reinfection on the This Week in Virology podcast.
Immune Response Varied Among COVID-19 Patients – MedPage
Antibody and immune responses to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, varied substantially among convalescing patients, a small study found.
The plasma of 41 patients in Australia recovering from COVID-19 showed antibodies, memory B cells, and circulating follicular helper T cells against the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein, but there was a range of certain B and T cell responses and frequency among individuals, reported Stephen Kent, PhD, of the University of Melbourne in Australia, and colleagues, writing in Nature Medicine.
Why is this important for vaccine development? Because, Kent’s group said, “neutralization activity in the plasma ranges widely” despite the qualitative detection of major immune response markers.
“B and T cell responses targeting the [receptor-binding domain], and in particular the ACE2 interaction site, were markedly less frequent than total responses to [spike protein], to the point of being undetectable in some individuals,” they wrote.
Immunity might wane after just two months, U.K. study finds – The Guardian
People who have recovered from Covid-19 may lose their immunity to the disease within months, according to research suggesting the virus could reinfect people year after year, like common colds.
In the first longitudinal study of its kind, scientists analysed the immune response of more than 90 patients and healthcare workers at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS foundation trust and found levels of antibodies that can destroy the virus peaked about three weeks after the onset of symptoms then swiftly declined.
Blood tests revealed that while 60% of people marshalled a “potent” antibody response at the height of their battle with the virus, only 17% retained the same potency three months later. Antibody levels fell as much as 23-fold over the period. In some cases, they became undetectable.
“People are producing a reasonable antibody response to the virus, but it’s waning over a short period of time and depending on how high your peak is, that determines how long the antibodies are staying around,” said Dr Katie Doores, lead author on the study at King’s College London.
‘We Still Face Much Uncertainty’: Pandemic Hammers Big Banks – NPR
The dramatic collapse of the U.S. economy from the coronavirus is pummeling America’s largest banks, raising new concerns about how much growth is slowing.
Wells Fargo lost $2.4 billion in the second quarter — its first quarterly loss since 2008 during the financial crisis — and said it expects to cut its dividend to shareholders by 80%. Citigroup saw its profit drop 73% in the quarter.
And JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s biggest bank, was forced to set aside billions of dollars more to cover bad loans during the second quarter, although money it made from trading in the frothy financial markets assured it made a profit anyway.
The results underscore the toll that the recession is taking on big banks, which serve as a barometer of how the broader U.S. economy is faring. Hopes that the economy will rebound as fast as it declined — a so-called V-shaped recovery — seem increasingly unlikely.
‘I can’t keep doing this’: Small businesses in the U.S. are shuttering as owners face a second round of lockdown. – New York Times
The back-and-forth closings of many small businesses is forcing some to permanently close.
Nearly 66,000 businesses have folded since March 1, according to data from Yelp, which provides a platform for local businesses to advertise their services and has been tracking announcements of closings posted on its site. While it’s not clear how many of the businesses tracked by Yelp are considered small by the federal government’s standards (with 500 or less employees), the company found that businesses were closing permanently at a higher rate than in the previous three months, from June 15 to June 29, the most recent period for which data is available.
And that may be an undercount. Researchers at Harvard estimated that nearly 110,000 small businesses across the country had decided to shut down permanently between early March and early May, based on data collected in weekly surveys by Alignable, a social media network for small-business owners.
3M partners with MIT researchers to develop U.S.-backed rapid coronavirus antigen test – CNBC
- The device, which is in the early stages of development, would function “like a pregnancy test,” said Cathy Tarnowski, senior technical manager at 3M.
- It will be a paper-based point-of-care testing device, 3M said.
- If development goes well, 3M is looking to manufacture millions per day to allow for frequent and affordable diagnostic testing.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Shock and ale: electric fence keeps drinkers back from the bar in English pub
French Health Care Workers Given A Raise, Honored On Bastille Day
Australia Grapples With New Surge In Coronavirus Cases
England is mandating face coverings in shops and supermarkets, the government announced.
Europe’s economies reopen to consumers eager to spend.
Qantas pulls almost all international flights to March 2021
U.S.-Canada Border Set To Remain Closed Until At Least August 21
India’s Bihar state to impose 16-day lockdown
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Bottleneck for U.S. Coronavirus Response: The Fax Machine
Blame game? Cuomo takes heat over NY nursing home study
43 coronavirus cases tied to party in Ann Arbor area
Miami Is Becoming The ‘Epicenter Of The Pandemic,’ Expert Warns
Oregon And West Virginia Will Shrink Social Gatherings To Combat COVID-19
California Closes Indoor Businesses Statewide As COVID-19 Cases Surge
Miami Hospital ICU Doctor: New Influx Of Patients Is Younger Than Before
U.S. Military Is Sending Medical Staff To COVID-19 Hotspots
Researchers report the first case of the virus transmitted to a baby during pregnancy.
Philadelphia to issue ban on large events through Feb. 2021 amid coronavirus pandemic
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
June 2020 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Grows to 0.6%
Continued Gradual Improvement in Consumer Expectations In June 2020
June 2020 Small Business Optimism Improves in Anticipation of Better Economic Outlook
What Makes A ‘Wave’ Of Disease? An Epidemiologist Explains
The Great Depression Has Arrived, It’s Just Not Evenly Distributed
Economy Getting Worse, Americans Say
Coronavirus’s Painful Side Effect Is Deep Budget Cuts For State And Local Government Services
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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