Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved, remains deep in contraction, and remains at a level at the values seen during the Great Recession.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect. We are in a recession and just waiting for the NBER to declare it. Hopefully it will be decided quicker than the Great Recession which took one year.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Increases
Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.
On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increased to 125.7, as the growth rate rose further to -25.1%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s real-time track record.
For information on ECRI professional services please contact us.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth significantly declined and continues to show economic contraction.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released in May) showed the rate of growth declined.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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