Written by Steven Hansen
The new coronavirus cases last week significantly declined relative to the prior week whilst deaths continued to decline following the existing trend line. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include China significantly cutting flights into the country; obesity’s link to COVID-19 grows; and getting sports rolling again in the USA.
Here is this week’s bar charts showing the progress in containing the coronavirus.
The coronavirus data, presented in charts, graphs, maps, and animations, can be overwhelming and also hard to grasp. In the following video it is explained what graphs can and cannot tell us about the pandemic.
I found an interesting graphic on Bloomberg which illustrates the significant forecast decline in summer vacation plans due to coronavirus.
Over this long holiday weekend, please stay safe by enjoying lower risk activities. A graph from USA Today:
Outdoor activities have the lowest risk – especially if one combines this with social distancing.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Study suggests COVID-19 immunity could last just six months – Sky News
[editor’s note: there are many different views on immunity – some extrapolation of data, some anecdotal, and others just opinion. If this extrapolation of data is confirmed – antibody tests, herd immunity, and immunity passports are worthless goals]
A person could be re-infected with coronavirus in six months, new research suggests, in a blow to the push for “immunity passports” as evidence of recovery from the illness.
… Over 35 years, University of Amsterdam scientists regularly tested 10 men for four types of coronaviruses which cause the common cold.
Most participants – aged between 27 and 66 – caught the viruses again within three years, with the study concluding “coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting”.
“We saw frequent reinfection after 12 months post infection and substantial reduction in antibody levels as soon as six months post-infection,” the study stated.
Obesity’s link to COVID-19 grows – USA Today
The chronic conditions that increase the risk of serious illness and death of COVID-19 are by now well known: diabetes, heart disease, hypertension and being older than 65. Obesity is less well known or understood. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention groups “severe obesity,” defined as having a BMI of 40 or higher, with the other known “risk factors for serious illness” for COVID-19.
CDC data show the percentage of adults considered obese increased from 30% to 42% between the 1999-2000 period and 2017-2018. Nine percent had severe obesity, up from 5% in 1999-2000.
… A growing number of studies and data on COVID-19 deaths confirm the link. The extra weight on people in the 40-plus BMI range who contract COVID-19 increases the chance they will require hospitalization, most likely in the intensive care unit. It also hampers the ability of physicians to treat them, especially with ventilators, doctors say.
Early results from convalescent plasma study are encouraging, researchers say – CNN
Hospitalized Covid-19 patients appear to fare better when they receive infusions of antibody-filled convalescent plasma, according to a study released on Friday.
The study hasn’t been peer reviewed or published in an academic journal, but researchers said the findings are a good sign for the plasma therapy, which is derived from the blood of recovered Covid-19 patients.
“We are encouraged that our initial assessment offers evidence in support of convalescent plasma as an effective intervention,” said Dr. Nicole Bouvier, an associate professor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai and a co-author on the study, in a statement.
Researchers are “remaining mindful that additional studies are needed to confirm these findings and draw more definitive conclusions in different populations,” she said.
The new study was small. It compared 39 patients who received convalescent plasma with “matched controls” – patients who didn’t receive plasma but were similar to those who did.
It wasn’t a traditional clinical trial because patients weren’t randomly assigned to a treatment group or a control group. Instead, the controls were picked after-the-fact using an algorithm.
Wash Your Nose Out With Soap and Water – LBN Examiner
As early as March 27, after consulting with medical colleagues, Dr. Kotler advised his patients that “plain, old soap and water” as a nasal ” wash or rinse” could hopefully destroy the CV at its entry point into the body. Dr. Kotler, a UCLA faculty member and former Major, Medical Corps, US Army, likened the struggle with the invading virus to warfare. “Should we not be attacking the enemy in its first hiding place? Here is where we need to establish an accessible first line of defense”, asks Kotler, the inventor of a popular FDA-approved, patented device that allows the patient’s having any nasal and/or sinus surgery to breathe clearly immediately after surgery.
“We may be missing a safe, simple and practical opportunity to destroy the virus before it causes the worst consequence, destruction of the lungs and death. All scientists agree that handwashing with soap works to reduce the likelihood of the virus taking hold in the body. Might soap perform equally well inside the nose?” Soap is effective because each Coronavirus-19 virus wears a fat-laden outer covering. Soap destroys the fatty layer; the virus is disabled and dies. Besides the hands, it can work its magic elsewhere.
“The concept of washing the inside of the nose with soap may seem peculiar to many, but for not for nasal surgeons. It’s routine, as part of the preparation for cosmetic and breathing operations to reduce the chance of infection. Soap causes no damage to the nasal interior. Soap is to viruses what antibiotics are to bacteria.”
COVID Sparks Sexbot “Revolution” As People Ditch Tinder – ZeroHedge
About two weeks into lockdowns (so about late March), we said sex with strangers via popular online dating apps would become a distant memory for some as virus fears would pull back on sexual desires. Though we did make a strong point how the sex industry was about to explode:
“As Americans are in mass quarantine and ordered to avoid social gatherings and other people, the good old days of logging into Tinder, Bumble, and or Grindr could be over for now – due mostly because, having sex with strangers could result in a contraction of the virus.
“This is why the rise of the sex doll industry could be imminent as millions have been forced by the government to practice social distancing to flatten the curve.”
Back then, we pointed out how sex robot company RealDoll, also known as Abyss, was promoting its “Platinum Grade Silicone” dolls as “antibacterial” and “safe” for use during the pandemic.
… Sex Doll Genie saw a 51.6% jump in orders from single men in February and March, with a 33.2% increase YoY from couples in April.
U.S. to exempt foreign athletes from coronavirus-related entry bans – Reuters
The United States will exempt some foreign athletes who compete in professional sporting events in the United States from entry bans imposed because of the novel coronavirus epidemic, acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf said on Friday.
“In today’s environment, Americans need their sports. It’s time to reopen the economy and it’s time we get our professional athletes back to work,” Wolf said in a statement issued by the department announcing he had signed an order for the exemption.
President Donald Trump’s administration is pushing to reopen the U.S. economy after drastic measures to combat the pandemic this year put tens of millions of people out of work.
Major U.S. professional sports were shut down as part of the effort to tackle COVID-19, the respiratory disease cause by the coronavirus which has killed more than 94,000 people and infected 1.57 million in the United States.
NBA in ‘exploratory’ talks with Disney about resuming 2019-20 season in late July at Orlando site – CBS Sports
The NBA may have identified a location for a resumption of the 2019-20 season, which has been suspended since mid-March due to the coronavirus pandemic. In a statement from NBA Chief Communications Officer Mike Bass on Saturday, the league has entered into exploratory talks with the Walt Disney Company about restarting the remainder of the season at Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando, Florida in late July.
“The NBA, in conjunction with the National Basketball Players Association, is engaged in exploratory conversations with The Walt Disney Company about restarting the 2019-20 NBA season in late July at Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Florida as a single site for an NBA campus for games, practices and housing. Our priority continues to be the health and safety of all involved, and we are working with public health experts and government officials on a comprehensive set of guidelines to ensure that appropriate medical protocols and protections are in place.”
Las Vegas, which has been considered the front-runner as a bubble site for some time, reportedly remains a candidate to host games as well, but Orlando as a sole site is the most likely scenario assuming testing and hotel requirements are sufficiently ironed out, according to Shams Charania and Sam Amick of The Athletic. As such, Walt Disney World has begun the early stages of preparing some of its hotel spaces for potential housing of the NBA and its needs, Keith Smith of Yahoo reports. Per Smith, a Disney employee said that the site is prepared to host the league for as long as it takes to complete the season.
[editor’s note: NY Gov. Cuomo is allowing professional sport’s training camps to reopen]
U.S. May Ban Travelers From Brazil on Sunday Over Outbreak: White House – US News
The United States is likely to impose travel restrictions on Brazil on Sunday, a top White House official said after the South American nation became the world No. 2 hot spot for coronavirus cases.
National security adviser Robert O’Brien told CBS’ “Face the Nation” there will likely be a decision to suspend entry for travelers arriving from Brazil.
“We hope that’ll be temporary, but because of the situation in Brazil, we’re going to take every step necessary to protect the American people,” O’Brien said.
Brazil became the world No. 2 hot spot for coronavirus cases on Friday, second only to the United States, and now has over 347,000 people infected by the virus, the Health Ministry said.
Chile reports more than 3,500 new Covid-19 cases in a single day – CNN
Chile’s Ministry of Health reported 3,536 new cases of the novel coronavirus in a single day, bringing the country’s total to 65,393, as of Saturday afternoon.
Forty three new deaths brought the country’s total fatalities to 673.
After Brazil and Peru, Chile has one of the highest number of confirmed cases in Latin America.
C.D.C. error in counting tests baffles scientists. – New York Times
As it tracks the spread of the coronavirus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is combining tests that detect active infection with those that detect recovery from Covid-19 — a system that muddies the picture of the pandemic but raises the percentage of Americans tested as President Trump boasts about testing.
Now that serology tests, which look for antibodies in the blood of people who have recovered, are more widespread, C.D.C. officials said on Friday they would work to separate them from the results of diagnostic tests, which detect active infection. One agency website that tracks the data has been lumping them together.
Stunned epidemiologists say data from antibody tests and active virus tests should never be mixed because diagnostic testing seeks to quantify the amount of active disease in the population. Serological testing can also be unreliable. And patients who have had both diagnostic and serology tests would be counted twice in the totals.
China orders sharp cuts in flights in, out of country to curb coronavirus risk – Reuters
China has ordered airlines to sharply cut the number of flights in and out of the country out of concern that travelers from overseas could reignite the coronavirus outbreak that paralyzed the country for two months.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said on Thursday it had directed Chinese airlines to maintain only one route to any country and limit the number of flights to one per week, effective March 29.
The authority also ordered foreign airlines to reduce their international routes to China to one per week and only operate one route into the country.
… China also will temporarily suspend the entry of foreigners with valid Chinese visas and residence permits starting on March 28, the Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.
… Mainland China has not seen any new locally transmitted coronavirus cases in six of the past eight days, shifting the focus to preventing infected people arriving from overseas from triggering a fresh outbreak in the country. All 67 new cases reported by the end of Wednesday were imported, as were all 47 reported the previous day, the National Health Commission said earlier on Thursday, putting the total number of confirmed cases to date at 81,285.
The time of trials: Waiting for a coronavirus vaccine – Knowable Magazine
With Covid-19, scientists already have a big head start, because this isn’t the first coronavirus they’ve tried to make a vaccine for. They had begun making vaccines for SARS and MERS during their outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively, only to abandon the efforts when the outbreaks receded.
So when Covid-19 came along, researchers already knew a good target for a vaccine: the spike protein that sits on the surface of the virus, and especially the part that binds to human cells, enabling the virus to gain entry. Researchers even knew how to stabilize that key part of the spike protein so it holds its shape during vaccine production.
This advance knowledge enabled the biotech company Moderna, in collaboration with the US government’s Vaccine Research Center, to decide on a vaccine candidate within three days of the Covid-19 genome being sequenced. That’s nearly a year quicker than it took to find a candidate for a SARS vaccine in 2003-04.
Bankruptcy Tsunami Begins: Thousands Of Default Notices Are “Flying Out The Door” – ZeroHedge
Two weeks ago, when showing the uncanny correlation between defaults and the unemployment rates, we predicted that the number of Chapter 11 filings that is about to flood the US will be nothing short of biblical.
All that was missing was a catalyst… and according to Bloomberg that catalyst arrived in the past week or so, as retail landlords have been sending out thousands of default notices to tenants, who in turn have experienced a collapse in foot traffic, sales and cash flow due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and are simply unable to pay their debt obligations.
According to Bloomberg, restaurants, department stores, apparel merchants and specialty chains have been receiving notices from landlords – some of whom have gone as long as three months without receiving rent.
Coronavirus Statistics For 24 May 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 21,236 | 1,620,000 | 97,636 | 5,270,000 | 21.8% | 30.7% |
Deaths | 1,080 | 97,087 | 3,633 | 341,722 | 29.7% | 28.4% |
Mortality Rate | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.5% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.19 | 40.54 |
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Dampening The Impact Of Global Financial Shocks On Emerging Market Economies
Many Colleges Universities Likely To Stay Remote In The Fall
The Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility PPPLF
Infographic Of The Day: Enhancing Home Learning
The Week Ahead: The Great Reopening
Coronavirus: BAME Deaths Urgently Need To Be Understood, Including Any Potential Genetic Component
Coronavirus Economic News 24May 2020
Coronavirus Disease News 24May 2020
The Sinking Housing Market: 2008 Redux?
COVID-19 Pandemic Fuels Bicycle Boom
How Central Asia’s Authoritarian Regimes Have Used Coronavirus To Their Advantage
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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