Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 215 K to 219 K (consensus 216,000), and the Department of Labor reported 202,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 217,500 (reported last week as 217,250) to 213,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
This marks 208 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4-week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which history suggests a slowing economy. The unemployment rate is currently worse than one year ago.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 4.2 % lower (better than the 1.5 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week a year ago.
Claim levels are at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 217,250 to 217,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 23, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 23 was 1,717,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 1,756,000 to 1,755,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,743,250, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 1,751,250.
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