Written by Sig Silber

HEADLINES (Updated 4:09 PM EDT) –

– Heavy rain and potential flooding for parts of the Eastern U.S. and the Desert Southwest

– Heat wave continues for much of the western U.S. through early this week

– Heavy rain and severe weather threat for the Midwest midweek

This article provides continuous updates for a variety of Weather and Weather-Related Threats as well as a general weather forecast. These are “Live” maps that continually update. Please pay attention to the Mesoscale Events maps — Mesoscale Events are potentially life-threatening situations.

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For those interested in longer-term forecasts, we just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and it can be accessed here.

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CONUS Focal Points

Short Range Focal Points

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

359 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 13 2021 – 00Z Thu Jul 15 2021

…Heavy rain and potential flooding for parts of the Eastern U.S. and the Desert Southwest…

…Heat wave continues for much of the western U.S. through early this week…

…Heavy rain and severe weather threat for the Midwest midweek…

Unsettled weather continues in the Northeast U.S. as a slow moving warm front advances northward along with a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are forecast through the period. Of greatest concern is a Moderate Risk for Excessive rainfall for the New York City area through tomorrow morning. Rainfall of 2 inches and higher is forecast for heavily urbanized areas that have recently seen significant rainfall leading to saturated soils. A broader Slight Risk for excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York where 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall is possible through tomorrow. A Slight Risk is also in effect for portions of Upstate New York east of Lake Ontario for tomorrow with 2 inches and potentially higher rain totals forecast. The heavy rain may lead to flooding and rises on area rivers as the region has seen above normal rainfall recently. Some additional heavy rainfall is expected further south along a trailing cold front moving east across the Midwest and South, but the threat will decrease with time as the front weakens tomorrow.

The intense heat wave that has been setting records across the western U.S. has peaked for most areas, with a gradual return to more seasonal temperatures by later in the week as the upper-level ridge that has been in place continues to weaken. However, excessive heat warnings remain in effect for most areas through Tuesday evening. Forecast highs on Tuesday include the mid- to upper 100s for the Desert Southwest and San Joaquin Valley in central California, low 100s for the Great Basin, and upper 90s to low 100s for the Interior Pacific Northwest.

Cooler high temperatures are forecast for central California and the Great Basin on Wednesday, with upper 90s expected in most areas, but will remain relatively hotter in the Interior Pacific Northwest with upper 90s to low 100s once again possible. Some relief from the extreme heat will also arrive in the form of monsoonal showers and storms each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Slight Risks for excessive rainfall are in effect each day. Heavy rain of 1-2 inches can be expected each day across the area, with higher amounts of 3-4 inches locally where the greatest downpours occur. The flood threat is most likely in more urbanized areas and for burn scars.

As the storm system in the east moves north into Canada, a series of fronts will move through the Northern and Central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday from the Northern High Plains east through the Upper Missouri Valley. A Marginal Risk for excessive rain is in effect with heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches is possible. More organized storms are expected on Wednesday, and there is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall in effect. Heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts of up to 5 inches is forecast. Severe weather is also a threat, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for portions of the Upper Missouri and Mississippi Valleys. The organized line of thunderstorms may produce high winds and short-lived tornadoes.

We try to keep this up to date but if is not you can find the updated version here.

When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

Thunderstorm Risk

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

The two maps below break it down by day and may be easier to read.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

During the winter much of our weather originates in the Pacific. That is why we pay attention to the near-term history of storms arriving.

Temperature

A version that shows a 40 hour animation and some other views can be found here

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Day 3 – 7 Hazards

Valid Thursday July 15 2021 – Monday July 19 2021

Hazards:

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Sun, Jul 17-Jul 18.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Southwest, Thu-Fri, Jul 15-Jul 16.

– Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes, Thu, Jul 15.

– Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.

– Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains.

– Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.

– Excessive heat across portions of the Northern Plains, Fri-Mon, Jul 16-Jul 19.

Detailed Summary:

The medium range forecast period (Thursday, July 15th to Monday, July 19th) will feature a building upper-level ridge over the Rockies, while a weak upper-level trough is forecast over the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast by early next week. This weather pattern is expected to lead to several chances for thunderstorms and heavy rain from the Central Plains to the East Coast. Beginning with the end of this week, an area of low pressure is forecast to traverse the Great Lakes region as a trailing cold front slowly swings through the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley.

Downpours will quickly exit Michigan by Friday, with lingering thunderstorms capable of producing intense rainfall rates throughout the Ohio Valley and westward into central Kansas through the beginning of the weekend. As the aforementioned frontal boundary slowly stalls throughout the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Sunday, continued reforming rounds of convection can be expected to spark and track southeastward into portions of northern Arkansas and western Tennessee. Predictability begins to decrease on Sunday as forecast guidance differs regarding how far south the cold front and associated rainfall reach. The potential exits for heavy rain early next week throughout the Lower Mississippi Valley, Deep South, and Tennessee Valley, but confidence was too low to include a highlighted hazard area on today’s graphic.

Showers and thunderstorms will also become more widespread across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday, before rainfall chances move southward into the Carolinas and Southeast by early next week. Isolated downpours may cause localized flooding here, but it remains too difficult to pin-point areas with the greatest heavy rain threat at this time frame.

Elsewhere, before the upper-level ridge strengthens over the Rockies late this weekend/early next week, additional monsoonal moisture is expected to reach parts of the Southwest. Over an inch of rain is possible over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico between Thursday and Friday. This could lead to additional instances of flash flooding. Rainfall chances and the probability of intense rainfall gradually decreases each day starting this weekend.

Heat is also expected to remain a concern throughout parts of the West and north-central United States during the medium range period. The highest temperature anomalies are currently expected over the Northern High Plains, where high temperatures could enter the triple digits for several consecutive days beginning on Friday. Hot weather and above average highs into the mid-90s are forecast across North Dakota and into northern Minnesota as well, but these values currently don’t reach hazardous criteria. Nonetheless, much of the Dakotas, northeast Wyoming, and the western half of Minnesota are experiencing severe to exceptional drought that will likely worsen due to the upcoming heat and lack of rain. Most of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin won’t get a break from the ongoing oppressively hot summer.

Above average temperatures are forecast through early next week, with highs into the upper-90s and low triple digits across lower elevations. If trends inch temperatures slightly higher, an Excessive Heat area may be needed for parts of Idaho, Utah, and western Colorado valid for early next week. For the Southwest, although it will remain hot, current expectations are for temperatures to remain only a few degrees above average.

For Alaska, a general increase in precipitation is expected to enter western portions of the state by Saturday, but low confidence deterred a highlighted area on today’s outlook.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but only present the highlights.

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Ski Snow Reports

We will resume snow coverage in the Fall

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Drought Coverage

We include drought information in this section.

More information can be found here.

July Drought Outlook.

Seasonal Outlook Issued May 20, 2021

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Tropical Events

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Weekly Tropical Forecast

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Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast

And shifting to the Alaska and CONUS Intermediate-Term Weather Forecast showing from left to right, Days 1- 5, 6 – 10, 8 – 14 and Weeks 3 – 4 You can click on these maps to have them enlarge, there are larger versions in the Addendum (More Weather the link is shown at the end of this section, and there are larger versions of these maps in the Addendum. Also, the discussions that go with these forecast maps can be found here (first two weeks) and here (Weeks 3 and 4).

First Temperature

And then Precipitation

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Mesoscale Events

The following map shows where mesoscale events are occurring or forecast. If you do not see any areas highlight on this map than there are no mesoscale events taking place or forecast. A mesoscale event is a very serious situation for a very small area and detailed information is provided for these events when they occur or are forecast. If a mesoscale event is shown, click on the map and more detail on the event will be shown.

Two different parts of the NWS issue this map and they are not always in agreement although they are pretty close. They (Norman Oklahoma and College Park Maryland) issue the alerts when they realize the need, so it is best to look on both maps and click one or both if you see areas highlighted.

This next map showing where “Headlines” have been issued for convection (and an animation of the recent movement of storms) should update and you should be able to click on to get additional details but if it does not update when you click on it, click here.

There is a slight difference between convection and thunderstorms. The below map shows where “Headlines” have been issued for Thunderstorms. You should be able to click on the map to get additional details but if it does not update, you can click here.

The map below shows the current wildfire risk which becomes more significant as we move into Summer. When you click on this image it takes you to the SPC Fire Warning Page and you get a set of maps for Days 1, 2, 3 – 8, etc. You can then click on those for more detailed information. The map is a bit blurry as I tried to make it a bit larger than the map provided by NOAA but should be able to see where the current wildfire risks are. But if you click on this map, you will get to see three maps that show the risk for different time periods.

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Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

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Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

Here are the precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

Looking ahead to next week.

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Additional Tools to Obtain Watches and Warnings

Below you will see a number of different maps that are updated in real-time, making this a “live” report. If a part of one or more of the maps shows an area that is highlighted, you can click on it and get the full current report. By having the reader click on these active situations rather than having GEI do so, you will not miss any events in which you might have an interest and which we had not noticed and the page will not get cluttered with warnings, etc that have since expired.

Our focus here is events that are likely to last in the range of six hours but there can be longer or shorter events that are addressed by the Storm Prediction Center which is the main source of the information in this article. Long-term major events like a Hurricane are more likely to be in a separate article. But that may not always be the case. Since in general, all the links on this page transfer you into the NOAA system, in order to get back into this article you need to either close the tab to which you were transferred or click back on the tab that has this article.

Live Warning Maps which If Severe Weather is Shown can be Clicked on to get more detail about these events. If there is a current warning shown on the map, click on the map for additional information related to the event.	These maps are updated as risks are identified.
This is the current graphic showing any mesoscale discussions (MD’s) which are in effect over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the purpose of our MD’s for further information. Details on all valid MD’s may be found on our Current Mesoscale Discussions page.
Convective Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. You may find the latest Day 1 Outlook available as well as all Outlooks issued today online.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 2 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is the day after tomorrow’s (day 3) forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information. The latest Day 3 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today.	Day 3 Outlook
This is the day 4-8 forecast for organized severe thunderstorms over the contiguous United States. The latest Day 4-8 Outlook is available as well as all Outlooks that have been issued today. Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms (e.g. a 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur within 25 miles of any point).	Day 4-8 Outlook
The Thunderstorm Outlooks depict the probability of thunderstorms across the contiguous United States in 4 or 8 hour time periods. The probabilistic forecast directly expresses the best estimate of a thunderstorm occurring within 12 miles of a point. The three probabilistic forecast thresholds are 10, 40, and 70 percent.	Thunderstorm Outlook
Fire Weather Outlooks
This is today’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Today’s Outlook
This is tomorrow’s forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Tomorrow’s Outlook
This is day 3-8 forecast for organized wildfires over the contiguous United States. Please read the description of the risk categories for further information about this product.	Day 3-8 Outlook

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