November 3, 2020 Weekly Crop Report And Revisiting The NOAA November Forecast

Written by Sig Silber

Tonight we first revisit the NOAA forecast for November and then we present the weekly U.S. Crop Progress and Condition Report which continues to look good. But we will have to wait and see how the condition of the Winter Wheat crop evolves.

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First, we revisit the NOAA November forecast which we thought at the time of publication was not correct and now we are sure it was not correct. Here is the article we published on October 31, 2020.

It all had to do with that old saying that the whole is equal to the sum of the parts.

Here is the NOAA November forecast that was issued on October 31, 2020.

Temperature Forecast

and the

Precipitation Forecast

Based on my management consulting background, I do not have blind faith in experts and draw my own conclusions. I am not a meteorologist and I am not aware of any publically available forecasts by month for the U.S. so I just take look at the short-term forecasts issued by NOAA and what I wrote when I issued my report is in the following paragraph.

Visual Consistency Testing.

It is useful to see how the full-month forecast fits with the set of partial-month forecasts that we have. These will continue to update in this article. It is important to remember that with the partial-month forecasts, we generally have about 25 days of the subsequent month to look at when we do this at the end of the month as we are doing now. It depends on what day of the week the month ends. So this month, which ended on a Saturday, we are missing a forecast that includes only three of the last three days of the month. So we are in excellent shape for the visual consistency testing this month.

We do not have more information today. Every Friday we get another week of these short-term forecasts but every day during the week we get an updated forecast map and discussion of the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts. I will take a look at the discussions but unless they are particularly informative I will not include them in my article. But what we do have is more days of the partial month forecasts remaining about the same. So I have more confidence now that somehow whoever put together the forecast for the full month of November did not get it right. So what that means is readers should pay attention to the partial month forecasts which are shown below and some update daily and the Week 3 -4 forecast updates on Fridays.

So let’s take a look.

First Temperature

The new monthly forecast is to the right. Does it appear to be reflective of the four parts of the month for which we have forecasts? →			↑ ← Right now the Day 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts are the regular weekday forecasts so what I was working with Saturday was not some sort of computer error. I do not think it is possible now for the Week 3.4 Forecast to be so extreme as to make the full month forecast work out.

I am just repeating the 6 -10 day and 8-14 day forecasts but larger.

And Precipitation

The new monthly forecast is to the right. Does it appear to be reflective of the four parts of the month for which we have forecasts? →			↑ ←Right now the Day 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts are the regular weekday forecasts so what I was working with Saturday was not some sort of computer error. I do not think it is possible now for the Week 3.4 Forecast to be so extreme as to make the full month forecast work out.

I am just repeating the 6 -10 day and 8-14 day forecasts but larger.

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U.S. Crop Progress Report

And now we will look at the U.S. Crop Progress Report but not before some highlights of recent weather that could impact that report and some images related to wildfires as they are drought-related to some extent.

Here is the weekly U.S. Crop Progress Report.

The above is a very good summary of the situation. Below it is broken down in more detail state by state.

Crop Progress Condition Corn Much better than 5-Year Ave. MA Soybeans Better than 5-Year Ave NA Cotton Now better than 5-Year Ave. Just barely OK Sorghum Much better than 5-Year Ave NA Peanuts Slow NA Sugarbeets Much better than 5-Year Ave NA Winter Wheat Better than 5-Year Ave Not Great Rice Just below last year and 5-Year Ave. NA Sunflowers Much better than last year and better than the 5-Year Ave. NA

Generally speaking, the weather did not cooperate that well with respect to fieldwork.

Soil Moisture

International

No map this week.

Major Sources of Information

In the box are shown the major resources we use. We will not be using them all each week but the reader is welcome to refer to these resources.

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