Written by Sig Silber
NOAA maintains the fiction that we have a La Nina and now forecasts two weeks of wet followed by two weeks of dry. This part of the forecast may indeed work out if the ridge forecast over the Western U.S. materializes. We should be having very interesting and highly changeable weather for the next 30 days at least. At this point, three storms are teed up to impact the West and Southwest within the next ten days. Then the pattern changes to a more dry pattern. The temperature changes may be even more rapid.
First some housekeeping information. For those who want the forecasts beyond three months, we reported previously on the December 15 NOAA 15-Month Forecast and compared the first nine months of the NOAA Outlook with that of JAMSTEC in a special Update that you can get to by clicking here. Remember if you leave this page to visit links provided in this article, you can return by hitting your “Back Arrow”, usually top left corner of your screen just to the left of the URL box. We will of course publish a new 15 Month Update Report shortly after NOAA issues their update on January 19, 2017. We will compare the NOAA and JAMSTEC forecasts and publish our analysis probably on Saturday Night January 21.
A. Focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S. except Hawaii)
First Let us focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.
This graphic provides a good indication of where the moisture is. It is a bit different than just moisture imagery as it is quantitative.
Image credit: Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD. More explanation can be found at Atmospheric Rivers (Click to read full Weather Underground Dr. Bob Henson article)
To turn the above into a forecasting tool click here and you will have a dashboard for a short-term forecasting model.
Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below.
The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.
U.S. 3 Day to 7 Day Forecasts
Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 3. The Day 6 forecast can be found here.
This is perhaps a good place to describe what a “Canonical” La Nina looks like. It is part of a very good write up covering many topics which can be found here.
You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 – 7) weather maps for CONUS by clicking on Day 3 or Day 4 or Day 5 or Day 6 or Day 7. These maps auto-update so whenever you click on them they will be forecast maps for the number of days in the future shown.
Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. More information is available here.
The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because “Thickness Lines” are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define “Thickness” and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. Remember that 540 relates to sea level.
The graphic that I have been showing below was the Eastern Pacific a 24 hr loop of recent readings. When working, it does a good job of showing what is going on right now. When I published and in recent weeks, that graphic was not being displayed but the NOAA website indicated that was a temporary outage. So for the time being I have substituted a static version of that image which works almost as well. However you can obtain somewhat similar imagery loop image by clicking here. It actually provides more functionality than the either the previously or currently displayed version but you have to click to get it as I have not figured out how to get it to display otherwise. It is really cool imagery and explains a lot. For now you have the static image without clicking but can click to view a more elaborate loop image. The loop image provides a better feel for the speed at which things are taking place. But this Quasi-Polar view provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.
I have stopped showing the Tropical events graphic. We are still having tropical events even though it is January but we can track them with the other graphics that I am presenting including the graphic above and below. They are both the same graphic which you can tell by looking at the date and time stamp but the above graphic covers a larger area and is centered on the Eastern Pacific and the graphic below is centered on North America. That provides more resolution than trying to work with a single graphic that covers a larger fraction of Planet Earth.
Below is the current water vapor Imagery for North America. It is an enlargement of the graphic two above which covers the Eastern Pacific and CONUS and this is an enlargement of the CONUS portion.
Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.
First the current situation. Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems. The sub-Jetstream level intensity winds shown by the vectors in this graphic are also very important in understanding the impacts north and south of the Jet Stream which is the higher-speed part of the wind circulation and is shown in gray on this map. In some cases however a Low-Pressure System becomes separated or “cut off” from the Jet Stream. In that case it’s movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream. This usually is more significant for the lower half of CONUS i.e. further south than the Jet Stream.
Now looking at the 5 Day Forecast
.
Putting the Jet Stream into Motion and Looking Forward a Few Days Also
To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.
This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.
When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.
Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on “earth” adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on “earth” to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America. It could be included in the Worldwide weather forecast section of this report but it is useful here re understanding the wind circulation patterns.
Four- Week Outlook
I am going to show the three-month JFM Outlook (for reference purposes although I do not have a lot of confidence in it), the Updated Outlook for the single month of January, the 6 – 10 Day and 8 – 14 Day Maps and the Week 3 – 4 Experimental Outlook. I use “EC” in my discussions although NOAA sometimes uses “EC” (Equal Chances) and sometimes uses “N” (Normal) to pretty much indicate the same thing although “N” may be more definitive.
First – Temperature
Here is the Three-Month JFM Temperature Outlook issued on December 15, 2016:
Here is the Temperature Outlook for January Issued on December 31, 2016
6 – 10 Day Temperature Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 16 was 4 out of 5)
8 – 14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 16 was 3 out of 5)
Looking further out.
| January 21 to January 30 | January 28 to February 10 |
Alaska starts cool and then trends moderate. The West will be cool and the cool anomaly will expand to the east as the period unfolds. The Eastern half of CONUS will be warm with the warm area shrinking from south to north and the probabilities of being warmer than climatology will decline except to the north as the nine-day period unfolds. | Alaska will become warm including the Alaskan Panhandle. It will be warm for CONUS West and cool in the Southeast Quadrant of CONUS other than Florida. Between the warm and cool anomalies it will be EC, The transition to the pattern shown in the Week 3 – 4 Forecast seems to be a drastic change from the 8-14 Day forecast suggesting that one or the other of the forecasts will turn out to be incorrect. |
| Remember the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook was issued last Friday and I am looking at the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts issued today i.e. Monday. So that explains the overlap of dates. Remember that the Week 3 – 4 Forecast covers two weeks so it can appear to not mesh perfectly but actually do so over the two-week period. | |
Now – Precipitation
Here is the three-month JFM Precipitation Outlook issued on December 15, 2016 that I do not have much confidence in.
And here is the Updated Precipitation Outlook for January issued on December 31, 2016
6 – 10 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 16 was 4 out of 5)
8 – 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on January 16 was 3 out of 5)
Looking further out.
.
| January 21 to January 30 | January 28 to February 10, 2017 |
| Alaska is mixed but trends towards wet, CONUS is wet except for a South Texas dry anomaly which expands towards the east. The Northwest trends towards dry as the wet anomaly moves south more like an El Nino than a La Nina. | There are two dry anomalies shown: one for CONUS which probably extends north to Alaska but this forecast does not show what is forecast for Canada so it is possible that the Alaskan dry anomaly is separate from the Western dry anomaly in CONUS. There is a second dry anomaly for the States related to the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and extending up through Vermont. There is a wet anomaly centered on the Dakotas. The Week 3 – 4 forecast over the last few days has begun to seem like a less drastic change from the 8 – 14 Day forecast, no longer suggesting that one or the other will not work out. |
| Remember the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook was issued last Friday and I am looking at the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts issued today i.e. Monday. So that explains the overlap of dates. Remember that the Week 3 – 4 Forecast covers two weeks so it can appear to not mesh perfectly but actually do so over the two-week period. | |
Here is the NOAA discussion released today January 16, 2017
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 – 26 2017
TODAY’S DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY’S BLENDED 500-HPA CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS, THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, THE GREAT LAKES, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM, AND LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD IN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM. THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY POSITIVE/CLOSE TO ZERO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE/CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH DAY 14, ALTHOUGH THERE IS RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE SIGN AND MAGNITUDE OF THE INDEX. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY DAY 7, BE CLOSE TO ZERO AT DAY 10, AND REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR THE EXPECTATION OF AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
A SOUTHERN JET STREAM AND THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXCEPTIONS A RE OVER MAINE WHERE THE FORECAST RIDGE TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION, AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE REAR SIDE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATIONS FOR THAT REGION WHILE A WEAK RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS FORECAST TOOLS, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 – 30 2017
TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A PATTERN CHANGE DURING WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED, WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR THE WEST COAST. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, AND THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY’S 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND GENERALLY INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE CONUS, THE ALEUTIANS, AND WESTERN ALASKA , WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, EASTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL SST’S AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA.
ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS FROM THE EASTERN SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES, AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INDICATES A CHANGE TO THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN THERE IN RECENT WEEKS AND ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST U.S. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS, WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE VARIOUS SURFACE TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JANUARY 19
Some might find this analysis click to read interesting as the organization which prepares it focuses on the Pacific Ocean and looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.
Analogs to the Outlook.
Now let us take a detailed look at the “Analogs” which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. “Analog” means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 – 14 day Outlook.
Here are today’s analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook but I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, which I am not using, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 – 10 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 – 10 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs may also be useful information but they put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.
Day | ENSO Phase | PDO | AMO | Other Comments |
| Jan 23, 1974 | La Nina | – | – | |
| Jan 24, 1984 | Neutral | + | – | Could be considered a La Nina |
| Dec 31, 1984 | La Nina | + | – | |
| Jan 25 1989 | La Nina | – | – | |
| Dec 31, 1989 | Neutral | – | – | Transition Period La Nina to El Nino |
| Jan 17, 1990 | Neutral | – | – | Transition Period La Nina to El Nino |
| Jan 18, 1990 | Neutral | – | – | Transition Period La Nina to El Nino |
| Jan 16, 2007 | El Nino | N | + | Tail End |
| Jan 18, 2007 | El Nino | N | + | Tail End |
(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.
One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from December 31 to January 25 which is 26 days which is about the same as last week. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, is about January 12. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (January 11 or January 12). So the analogs could be considered to be in sync with the calendar meaning that we will be getting weather that we would normally get this time of the year.
For more information on Analogs see discussion in the GEI Weather Page Glossary.
There are two El Nino Analogs, three La Nina Analogs and five ENSO Neutral Analogs. Looks like the analogs are suggesting that ENSO Neutral Conditions Apply. The phase of the ocean cycles in the analogs points strongly towards McCabe Condition B which fits with the 6 – 14 Day Forecast.
The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.
| McCabe Condition | Main Characteristics |
| A | Very Little Drought. Southern Tier and Northern Tier from Dakotas East Wet |
| B | More wet than dry but Great Plains Dry |
| C | Northern Tier and Mid-Atlantic Drought |
| D | Southwest Drought extending to the North and also the Great Lakes |
You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.
Historical Anomaly Analysis
When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.
Recent CONUS Weather
This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred recently.
Here is the 30 Days ending January 7, 2017
And the 30 Days ending January 14, 2017
B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let’s Look at the World which of Course also includes Alaska and CONUS
Todays Forecast
Additional Maps showing different weather variables can be found here.
Near Term
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool.
Although I can not display the interactive control panel in my article, I can display any of the graphics it provides so below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for three days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 3 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here
Precipitation
Temperature
Looking Out a Few Months
Here is the new precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia:
JAMSTEC
JAMSTEC issued their ENSO forecasts and climate maps on January 10 but I am not showing them this week. Their first three-month forecast is for MAM 2017. NOAA will be issuing their 15 Month Outlook Update on Thursday January 19 and we will publish a special Update Report on Saturday Night January 21. At that time we will not only present the NOAA 15 Month Outlook but compare MAM, JJA, and SON of the JAMSTEC forecast with the corresponding NOAA forecasts. For those who can not wait one can find the JAMSTEC updated maps at this link.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies
And when we look at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO.
Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.
Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the January 10, 2017 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
* Moderate Confidence that the indicated anomaly will be in the upper or lower third of the historical range as indicated in the Legend.
Look at the Western Pacific in Motion. NOAA is having problems with their web site so I have temporarily substituted a static image but you can find a somewhat similar loop version by clicking here. It actually provides more functionality than the displayed version but you have to click to get it as I have not figured out how to get it to display otherwise.
C. Progress of the Cool ENSO Event
Starting with Surface Conditions.
TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.
And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.
| ———————————————— | A | B | C | D | E | —————– |
I “froze” todays TAO/TRITON Graphic shown below and drew in the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area. You can see that the cool anomaly is now only in the western part of the Measurement Area (today mostly north of the Equator but that can change day to day) and with an Inactive Phase of the MJO forecast, that cool water will tend to be moved to the west and outside of the Nino 3.4 Measurement. Area.
The below table which only looks at the Equator shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. I had split the table to show warm, neutral, and cool anomalies. The top rows showed El Nino anomalies. When there were no more El Nino anomalies along the Equator, I eliminated those rows. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral and after another break, the rows are associated with La Nina conditions. I have changed the reference date to May 23, 1016.
Subareas of the Anomaly | Westward Extension | Eastward Extension | Degrees of Coverage | |||||
As of Today | May 23, 2016 | As of Today | May 23 2016 | As of Today | In Nino 3.4 | Dec 12, 2016 | May 23, 2016 | |
| These Rows Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator | ||||||||
| 0.5C or cooler Anomaly | 175E | 155E | Land | 155W | 90 | 50 | 95 | 50 |
| 0C or cooler Anomaly | Dateline | 155W | LAND | Land | 85 | 50 | 85 | 60 |
| These Rows Show the Extent of the La Nina Impacts on the Equator | ||||||||
| -0.5C or cooler | 175W | 145W | 140W | Land | 35 | 30 | 65 | 50 |
| -1C or cooler Anomaly | 165W | 140W | 150W | 105W | 15 | 15 | 40 | 35 |
| -1.5C or cooler Anomaly | LAND | 135W | LAND | 120W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I calculate the current value of the ONI index (really the value of NINO 3.4 as the ONI is not reported as a daily value) each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions.
So as of Monday January 16, in the afternoon working from the January 15 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated. [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.]
| Anomaly Segment | Estimated Anomaly | |
| Last Week | This Week | |
| A. 170W to 160W | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| B. 160W to 150W | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| C. 150W to 140W | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| D. 140W to 130W | -0.6 | -0.0 |
| E. 130W to 120W | -0.6 | +0.2 |
| Total | -2.6 | -1.5 |
| Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI | (-2.6)5 = -0.5 | (-1.5)/5 = -0.3 |
From Tropical Tidbits.com
Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies
It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called “departures” or “anomalies”. Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.
I had stopped showing the below graphic which is more focused on the Equator but looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface. But over the last month there has been sufficient change to warrant including this graphic.
Let us look in more detail at the Equatorial Water Temperatures.
We are now going to change the way we look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down. Notice by the date of the graphic (dated January 13, 2017) that the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown although this graphic was updated on late Monday so it is more current than usual. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period.
Below is the pair of graphics that I regularly provide. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times and today in particular, I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years except along the Equator where it is adjusted every five years) and how both measures are useful but for different purposes.
The bottom half of the graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline) is now more useful as we track the progress of this new Cool Event.
Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.
Although I did not fully discuss the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures which remains relevant. What we had until this morning was only the upwelling phase of the series of Kelvin waves last winter. I guess NOAA has not clearly designated that upwelling phase as a new Kelvin Wave but they did put a “dash” through it in the graphic shown earlier.
And now Let us look at the Atmosphere.
Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator
Here are the low-level wind anomalies.
And now the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place.
And Now the Air Pressure which Shows up Mostly in an Index called the SOI.
This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that the extent to which the Atmospheric Air Pressure at Tahiti exceeds the Atmospheric Pressure at Darwin Australia when normalized is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World.
Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.
| Date | Current Reading | 30-Day Average | 90 Day Average |
| Jan 10 | +19.79 | +6.64 | +0.58 |
| Jan 11 | +8.77 | +6.89 | +0.88 |
| Jan 12 | -1.13 | +6.95 | +1.15 |
| Jan 13 | -3.34 | +6.94 | +1.26 |
| Jan 14 | -11.39 | +6.81 | +1.12 |
| Jan 15 | -11.63 | +6.62 | +0.85 |
| Jan 16 | -3.90 | +6.46 | +0.76 |
The 30 Day Average on January 16 was reported as +6.46 which is ENSO Neutral and essentially unchanged from last Monday. The 90 Day Average was reported at +0.76 which is also essentially unchanged from last Monday. That is why looking at both the 30 and 90 day averages is useful.
To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. It had been increasing in September but now in October and November and through most of December has stabilized in the Neutral Range. So far in January there has not been much change. That could change but for now the SOI is not signaling a La Nina but ENSO Neutral..
The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource. December was not particularly favorable for La Nina development and most likely neither will be January in terms of the MJO.The forecasts of the MJO are now suggesting an Inactive Phase. The MJO being Inactive is more favorable for the creation of a La Nina than the MJO being Active. But for a mature westerly displaced cool event the Inactive Phase of the MJO may be negative for that cool event.
The MJO tends to be more important when the situation is ENSO Neutral and the MJO can start the process of an El Nino getting started. It is surprising how weak the MJO has been for months. But it may account for what seems to be a cycling of the estimate of Nino 3.4 as the cool water is blown first to the west and then to the east. This impacts the upwelling also.
Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO
We now have the January early-month report from CPC/IRI which I call the reading of the tea leaves in that it is based on a combination of model results and a survey of the views of meteorologists.
But first the December 15, 2016 fully model-based version
And now the Tea Leaves report.
The official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast, based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. It is updated during the first half of the month, in association with the official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. It is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. It uses human judgment in addition to model output, while the forecast shown in the Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast relies solely on model output. This is updated on the second Thursday of every month.
As usual, the Tea Leaves Report tends to be bit more partial to La Nina than the second report of the month. Nevertheless the Tea Leaves Report shows the probability of ENSO Neutral is higher than the probability of La Nina for DJF and we are in the midpoint of that three month .And here is the discussion that was released with the graphic.
During early January 2016 the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was near -0.5C, the threshold for weak La Niña. Many of the atmospheric variables across the tropical Pacific have also remained consistent with weak La Niña conditions, although some have become only weakly so. The upper and lower atmospheric winds have continued to be weakly suggestive of a strengthened Walker circulation, and the cloudiness and rainfall have remain suggestive of La Niña conditions. The collection of ENSO prediction models indicates SSTs, now near the threshold of La Niña, will dissipate to neutral levels by February.
Here is the daily PDF and Spread Corrected version of the NOAA CFSv2 Forecast Model.
The full list of weekly values can be found here.
Here is the NOAA statement on ENSO released on January 12.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 January 2017 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017.
La Niña continued during December, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continuing across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The weekly Niño index values fluctuated during the last month, with the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions hovering near and slightly warmer than -0.5°C (Fig. 2). [Editors note: If the Nino 3.4 Temperature Anomaly is warmer than -0.5C it is not La Nina Conditions]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was near zero when averaged across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), though near-to-below average subsurface temperatures were evident closer to the surface (Fig. 4). Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western Pacific, and upper-level westerly anomalies were observed across the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with a weak La Niña.
The multi-model averages favor an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C), with ENSO-neutral lasting through August-October (ASO) 2017 (Fig. 6). Along with the model forecasts, the decay of the subsurface temperature anomalies and marginally cool conditions at and near the ocean surface portends the return of ENSO-neutral over the next month. In summary, a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Even as the tropical Pacific Ocean returns to ENSO-neutral conditions, the atmospheric impacts from La Niña could persist during the upcoming months (NOAA’s 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday January 19th). The current seasonal outlook for JFM 2017 favors above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern tier of the U.S., and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in portions of the northern tier of the U.S.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 February 2017. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740
Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.
Here is the Nino 3.4 report from the Australian BOM (it updates every two weeks)
Discussion (notice their threshold criteria are different from NOAA but also their actuals are higher (less La Nina-ish) than reported by NOAA and yet Nino 3.4 is standard. So someone is incorrect OR WORSE.)
Here is the discussion.
Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO neutral
In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors.
Most indicators of ENSO, such as sea surface temperatures, the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the trade winds are within the ENSO-neutral range. However, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like pattern.
All climate models indicate that the Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Model outlooks that span the autumn period tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, therefore outlooks beyond May should be used with caution.
We now have the new JAMSTEC January 1, 2017 ENSO forecast.
The model shows that we are in ENSO Neutral. The potential for an El Nino next winter is shown but right now the duration is too short to be recorded as an El Nino. That may change but we are dealing with the Spring Predictability Barrier SPB so it is way too early to be predicting next winter.
The Discussion that goes with their Nino 3.4 forecast has just been released.
Jan. 16, 2017 Prediction from 1st Jan., 2017
ENSO forecast:
The latest SINTEX-F prediction suggests the termination of the current weak La Niña Modoki/La Niña state in coming months. Majority of the ensemble members continue to indicate recurrence of a weak El Niño event in the latter half of 2017. It will be interesting if an El Niño event really evolves in 2017, which may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state, which led to the global warming hiatus.
Indian Ocean forecast:
The predictions continue to suggest development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in coming boreal fall. We also expect the Ningaloo Niño off the west coast of Australia in austral fall.
Regional forecast:
On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of eastern Canada, northern Brazil, and western Australia will experience a colder-than-normal condition in the boreal spring.
According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for eastern part of Brazil, western Australia and South Africa during the austral fall. Most parts of southeastern China, Indonesia, eastern Africa, western half of Europe, northern part of South America (including Colombia, Venezuela, and Guyana) will experience a drier condition during the austral fall, whereas the Philippines, Indochina, southern Mexico, and the eastern half of Europe will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. Most parts of Japan will be warmer and drier than normal in boreal spring. However, we note that highly fluctuating mid- and -high latitude climate may not be captured well by the current model.
Indian Ocean IOD (It updates every two weeks)
The IOD Forecast is indirectly related to ENSO but in a complex way.
Discussion
Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The weekly index value to 15 January is −0.21 °C.
The influence of the IOD on Australian climate is weak during December to April. This is due to the monsoon trough shifting south over the tropical Indian Ocean and changing the overall wind circulation, which in turn prevents an IOD ocean temperature pattern from being able to form. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD for the end of autumn.
D. Putting it all Together.
Looks like this Cool Event is no longer even properly described as “La Nina Conditions Apply”. But it still is.
Forecasting Beyond Five Years.
So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS. It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder. Parts of that discussion are in the beginning section of this week’s Report.
E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports
Weather in the News
Nothing to report
Weather Research in the News
Nothing to report.
Global Warming in the News
There will be a Climate Conference sponsored by Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) February 5 – 10 in Santa Fe, New Mexico and I will be giving a talk on Southwest Climate and we will publish my talk on or about February 10..
F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)
2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD
3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.
4. Computer Models and Methodologies
5. Reserved for a Future Topic (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)
G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report – Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.
The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.
2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming
3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming
4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming
Useful Background Information
With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.
| El Ninos | La Ninas | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | Start | Finish | Max ONI | PDO | AMO | |
| DJF 1950 | J FM 1951 | -1.4 | – | N | ||||||
| T | JJA 1951 | DJF 1952 | 0.9 | – | + | |||||
| DJF 1953 | DJF 1954 | 0.8 | – | + | AMJ 1954 | AMJ 1956 | -1.6 | – | + | |
| M | MAM 1957 | JJA 1958 | 1.7 | + | – | |||||
| M | SON 1958 | JFM 1959 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
| M | JJA 1963 | JFM 1964 | 1.2 | – | – | AMJ 1964 | DJF 1965 | -0.8 | – | – |
| M | MJJ 1965 | MAM 1966 | 1.8 | – | – | NDJ 1967 | MAM 1968 | -0.8 | – | – |
| M | OND 1968 | MJJ 1969 | 1.0 | – | – | |||||
| T | JAS 1969 | DJF 1970 | 0.8 | N | – | JJA 1970 | DJF 1972 | -1.3 | – | – |
| T | AMJ 1972 | FMA 1973 | 2.0 | – | – | MJJ 1973 | JJA 1974 | -1.9 | – | – |
| SON 1974 | FMA 1976 | -1.6 | – | – | ||||||
| T | ASO 1976 | JFM 1977 | 0.8 | + | – | |||||
| M | ASO 1977 | DJF 1978 | 0.8 | N | – | |||||
| M | SON 1979 | JFM 1980 | 0.6 | + | – | |||||
| T | MAM 1982 | MJJ 1983 | 2.1 | + | – | SON 1984 | MJJ 1985 | -1.1 | + | – |
| M | ASO 1986 | JFM 1988 | 1.6 | + | – | AMJ 1988 | AMJ 1989 | -1.8 | – | – |
| M | MJJ 1991 | JJA 1992 | 1.6 | + | – | |||||
| M | SON 1994 | FMA 1995 | 1.0 | – | – | JAS 1995 | FMA 1996 | -1.0 | + | + |
| T | AMJ 1997 | AMJ 1998 | 2.3 | + | + | JJA 1998 | FMA 2001 | -1.6 | – | + |
| M | MJJ 2002 | JFM 2003 | 1.3 | + | N | |||||
| M | JJA 2004 | MAM 2005 | 0.7 | + | + | |||||
| T | ASO 2006 | DJF 2007 | 1.0 | – | + | JAS 2007 | MJJ 2008 | -1.4 | – | + |
| M | JJA 2009 | MAM 2010 | 1.3 | N | + | JJA 2010 | MAM 2011 | -1.4 | + | + |
| JAS 2011 | FMA 2012 | -0.9 | – | + | ||||||
| T | MAM 2015 | NA | 1.0 | + | N | |||||
ONI Recent History
The Aug/Sept/Oct reading has been issued and is now updated to be -0.8. The Sep/Oct/Nov preliminary estimate is -0.8 and the preliminary OND has just come out as -0.8 so there would now need for there to be only one more period of -0.5 or colder for this to be eligible to be formally recorded as a La Nina. I suspect there will be one more. NOAA seems to be determined to make that happen. THEIR FUNDING OR CAREER PATHS MAY DEPEND ON THAT.
The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.
