Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 07-28-2014
As expected the markets recovered from this mornings sell-off to end the day flat and in the green for the large caps. Volume remained low to anemic all afternoon while trading stayed in a tight, narrow and fractionally trending down market.
By 4 pm the markets closed with a green spurt of green volume in anticipation of a “Tuesday Up-Market’.
I remain modestly cautious as we end July and enter a new month. Dailfx.com writes, “Historically, August sees the biggest $SPX losses of any calendar month: http://t.co/0AvO3WvMAg.” I have predicted September will start the eventual decline of Mr. Market, but it could start sooner.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 9.26. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 53 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 66.9 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 70.57. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 82.60. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -31.92. (Chart Here)
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.93. (Chart Here)
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16983 up 22 or 0.13%.
The SP500 is at 1979 up 0.57 or 0.03%.
SPY is at 197.76 up 0.08 or 0.04%.
The $RUT is at 1140 down 5 or -0.46%.
NASDAQ is at 4445 down 5 or -0.10%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3967 up 2 or 0.05%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.56 down 0.13 or -1.02%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 102.09 (resistance) and 100.91 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 101.58.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.10 (resistance) and 107.02 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 107.52.
Gold fell from 1311.50 earlier to 1304.07 and is currently trading down at 1307.40. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.244 rising from 3.226 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.14 and 81.06 and is currently trading down at 81.12, the bias is currently sideways and quiet.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary
