Closing Market Commentary For 01-17-2013
Today’s session illustrates clearly the problem analysts, like myself, have with this market place. Too much damn guessing and most of it is no better than throwing spaghetti on the wall to see if it sticks. The HFT computers were most likely the reason for today’s melt up action during the afternoon, as most traders, like myself, are sitting and waiting to see if this ‘house of cards’ is going to continue to stand.
Markets closed at new highs with a brief bit of profit taking during the final minutes of the session and muted volume.
The news from the Fed’s is not exactly inspiring for long term investments and I remain on the sidelines for the time being. I am not going to be tricked into believing the markets will climb to their previous highs before descending. They could turn the charts into head and shoulders and fall at any time. Just saying!
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s gauge of manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell to -5.8 in January from 4.6 in December. The index was expected to rise to 5.8. Readings above zero point to expansion while those below indicate contraction.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm “Tradable” This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13596 up 84 or 0.63%.
The SP500 is at 1480 up 8 or 0.56%.
SPY is at 147.96 up 0.94 or 0.64%.
The $RUT is at 890.36 up 8.05 or 0.91%.
NASDAQ is at 3136 up 18 or 0.59%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is down.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 95.30 trading between 93.12 and 95.70 and the bias is neutral.
Gold gaped down this morning and that was covered. Currently trading up at 1687.70, trading range is between 1690.01 and 1666.64 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.66 up from 3.60 earlier.
The US dollar fell from 79.95 earlier to 79.62 and is currently trading down at 79.73.
The SP500 at the close. Just 65 points away from 1550 area and a triple top. This is going to be interesting!
The DOW at the close. Only 268 points away from a double top. Just do not have a warm fuzzy feeling about the outcome of this.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary
