by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight
Gold closed near unchanged yesterday (16 December 2014), holding near support at the lower boundary of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.
We are 5 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on December 1. The quick move above the last alpha high (AH) during the last beta phase rally signals the likely transition to a bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through December 29, with our best estimate being now through December 18.
- Last STCL: December 1, 2014
- Cycle Duration: 12 sessions
- Cycle Translation: Bullish
- Next STCL Window: Now through December 29; best estimate now through December 18.
- Setup Status: No active setups.
- Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
- Signal Status: No active signals.
- Stop Level: None active
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above congestion resistance in the 1,240 area would reconfirm the uptrend from November and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below uptrend support near 1,187 would predict a move down toward the previous low near 1,140.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
Gold Currency Index Daily Chart Analysis
The Gold Currency Index (GCI) is a composite of gold prices in the currencies of 10 of the largest economies in the world as defined by GDP. It is therefore currency independent, reflecting the intrinsic value of gold as an international currency itself.
The GCI closed near unchanged today, holding below previous highs of the uptrend from November near congestion support in the 32.80 area. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.
Short-term Outlook
- Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above congestion resistance in the 33.80 area would reconfirm the uptrend from November and forecast additional gains.
- Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support at the 31.90 level would predict a move down toward the previous low at 30.69.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
