Econintersect: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has published the May federal budget review. The federal deficit is more than $200 billion less for fiscal year 2013 than for the corresponding period in 2012. The assessment covers the first eight months of the fiscal year. The result is derived from 15% more tax receipts and government spending that is vitually unchanged (up less than 1%) from 2012.
Click on table for larger image.
Following are some specific details in the CBO report that lie below the high level of the above tables.
Outlays for some major programs or categories of spending were less than what was spent in the first eight months of last year. First some of the outlays decreasing year-to-year:
- Outlays recorded for the TARP (which are included in the category “Other Activities” in the above table) declined by $33 billion, mainly because adjustments to the estimated cost of the program increased outlays by $21 billion in 2012 and reduced them by $13 billion in 2013.
- Net payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (also included in “Other Activities”) were $25 billion less than those made at the same time last year. In 2012, the Treasury made more payments to the entities in 2012 than it received from them, whereas this year, the opposite has occurred.
- Outlays for unemployment benefits declined by $17 billion (or 25 percent), mostly because fewer people have been receiving benefits in recent months.
- Spending by the Federal Housing Administration decreased by $6 billion, primarily because the agency increased the premiums (which are recorded as negative outlays) it charges for mortgage insurance in 2013.
- Spending decreased by $6 billion (or 26 percent) for energy programs and by $3 billion (or 20 percent) for international assistance.
Spending increased over the amounts for the first eight months of last year:
- Spending by the Department of Agriculture increased by $15 billion, primarily because drought led to an increase in crop insurance payments.
- Outlays for the Federal Emergency Management Agency were $9 billion higher, mostly because of Hurricane Sandy.
The estimated deficit for May 2013 is $139 billion, following a surplus of $113 billion in April.
The budget deficit estimate for the entire year 2013 is unchanged at $642 billion. This is down from the preceeding years ($1,087 billion trillion in 2012, $1,300 billion in 2011, $$1,294 billion in 2010 and $1,412 billion in 2009). The 2009 budget year was the last budget under the Bush administration, the fiscal year ending 30 September 2009, and contained unplanned emergency expenses at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.
In February the CBO published the budget projections for the next ten years. The latest estimates for the 2013 federal deficit are down 24% from February number shown in the table below.
Click on table for larger image.
Sources:
- Monthly Budget Review (Congressional Budget Office, 07 June 2013)
- Budget of the United States Government (U.S. Government Printing Office)
- The Budget and Economic Outlook Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023 (Congressional Budget Office, February 2013)
