Texas factory activity increased in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped from 10 to 7.9, indicating slightly slower growth.
Most other measures of current manufacturing activity also suggested growth in October, although new orders declined. The capacity utilization index edged up from 9.3 to 11.4, with more than one-quarter of manufacturers noting an increase. The shipments index held steady at 4.7, suggesting shipments rose at about the same pace as in September. The new orders index fell from 5.3 to –4.5, reaching its lowest level this year and indicating a decrease in demand.
Perceptions of general business conditions improved slightly in October. The general business activity index rose to 1.8, registering its first positive reading since June. The company outlook index was positive for the sixth month in a row and remained unchanged at 2.4.
Labor market indicators reflected slow but steady labor demand growth and shrinking workweeks. The employment index was 5.2 in October, largely unchanged from last month but well below the higher levels seen earlier in the year. About 15 percent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 10 percent reported layoffs. The hours worked index fell back into negative territory with a reading of –5.9, down from 2.8 in September.
Prices and wages increased in October. The raw materials price index reached its highest level since May 2011; it jumped 13 points to 35.6, indicating a sharp rise in input costs. After seven months of negative readings, the finished goods price index rose to 4.2, suggesting selling prices rose. The wages and benefits index decreased from 15.4 to 11, although the great majority of manufacturers continued to note no change in compensation costs. Looking ahead, 40 percent of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while 29 percent expect higher finished goods prices.
Expectations regarding future business conditions were more optimistic in October. The index of future general business activity jumped from 5.5 to 16.8. The index of future company outlook also rose sharply from 9.2 to 20.9. With the exception of new orders, indexes for future manufacturing activity were stronger than in September.
Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Empire State Survey (green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
