Econintersect: Weekly rail traffic growth year-over-year remains solid – and the year-over-year growth is better than GDP and most sectors of the economy. Rail traffic ends up being a leading indicator as it moves goods that will enter the economy weeks and months from now.
The latest data for week 48 of 2011 ending 03 December 2011, rail traffic grew 3.1% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.Rail performance up to June 2011 was growing 3% to 4%. From June through September 2011, the growth rate declined. In August and September, weekly rail traffic contracted 4 times year-over-year – but since October has again turned moderately positive.
This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.8%, down from 2.9% last week. Rail traffic seasonally contracts through the end of the year. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is a sign of a weak economy.
Total US Rail Traffic
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.1% | (16.0%) | (0.8%) | (0.6%) | 5.2% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 13.5% | 3.5% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.1% | (16.3%) | 10.1% | (4.1%) | 8.6% | 33.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 17.7% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.8% | (12.7%) | 2.3% | (2.4%) | 3.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 19.1% | 3.8% |
Vs. 2009 | 11.0% | (12.3%) | 9.0% | (3.1%) | 7.2% | 40.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 16.2% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.8% | (13.1%) | 3.9% | (2.7%) | 2.8% | 7.1% | 1.2% | 15.0% | 3.7% |
Vs. 2009 | 12.3% | (9.1%) | 11.7% | (3.5%) | 7.0% | 43.4% | 5.3% | 9.8% | 17.0% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.2% | (2.4%) | 4.7% | (2.8%) | 3.4% | 8.3% | (0.1%) | 8.9% | 5.1% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.7% | 8.5% | 14.6% | (0.4%) | 7.3% | 50.9% | 0.5% | 29.8% | 20.2% |
4 week rolling average:
source: Railfax