Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 01-08-2015
The afternoon markets drifted fractionally higher as the US dollar climbed back up into the important resistance zone that it broke out of once early this morning. WTI oil climbed into the 48.70 range this afternoon, stopped and then traded sideways in a narrow trading zone until the close. Important to note that Brent traded below 50 for the first time since 2009 at 49.84.
By 4 pm volume remained active, low, as a few investors took on roles as bulls and bears, with neither gaining the advantage. The action tomorrow may be again volatile and the bulls are forewarned of higher risk.
Oil is calling the shots and as we leave today's session behind us, the trend was definitely down. The oil trading pundits feel strongly that we have not seen the last of the decline and to look for 40ish being the bottom. At least that is the thoughts for today's geopolitical stance which could radically change at a moments notice and drive oil down to 10 bucks a barrel - no I am not kidding.
Personally I don't believe it will happen, but then no one was expecting oil to fall as it has - and did! I am in SCO and the trend is my friend. SOXS is back down in the 13 range, time to jump in if you missed it.
Reuters reports the U.S. stocks rallied more than 1 percent for a second day on Thursday, boosted by expectations the U.S. economy will continue to improve and hopes of more aggressive action from the European Central Bank. Which I have SERIOUS doubts it will happen.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the session market direction meter is 34 % bullish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains just above zero at +0.70. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 50 % Bearish.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -8.82. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 47.74 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.
Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor's should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.
Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a 'correction' underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.
These are not 'leading' indicators as such, but depicting 'trends' in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 20.16. (Chart Here) 10-year Treasury yield drops below 2% for first time in 7 months
Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,790. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17872 up 289 or 1.64%. (Historical High 18,103.45)
The SP500 is at 2059 up 33 or 1.63%. (Historical High 2,093.55)
SPY is at 205.61 up 3 or 1.64%.
The $RUT is at 1194 up 18 or 1.56%.
NASDAQ is at 4731 up 80 or 1.72%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4236 up 76 or 1.83%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 17.05 down 2.26 or -11.70%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net neutral, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 49.64 (resistance) and 47.77 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, trading up and is currently trading up at 48.99. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1204.90 earlier to 1216.42 and is currently trading down at 1207.40. The current intra-session trend is trading down. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.769 falling from 2.793 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 92.75 (highest since 2005 and ~92 is a very substantial resistance with 92.53 representing a triple top) and 92.05 and is currently trading up at 92.58, the bias is currently elevated and trading sideways. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary