Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-13-2014
Markets traded, for the most part, sideways throughout the afternoon session with a slight up trend to end the day. The DOW has a new closing high of 17652.79 and the SP500 closed just below it old closing high. Volume remained low as the averages remained in the green, with the exception of $RUT, all day
By 4 pm the averages were looking good to the untrained eye, but there are a myriad of issues that could derail this bull run.
The continuing escalation of Russia in the Ukraine, financial woes in Europe and the possibility of the rising U.S. Dollar that could destabilize the global financial system. There are a lot of things going on and it shows in our market as weakness. However, again, the trend is your friend until it isn't!
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the short-term market direction meter is very, very bearish moving up from bearish this morning. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 25.02. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 65 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%).
. . . the market remains overbought short-term and the bull-bear ratio is at levels that usually precede a downturn - the last trip to the current level (about 37%) came just before the January decline. There is so much certainty about this being the perfect season for stocks that we are surely going to be punished for our temerity first.
. . . but one nugget I'll tell you here is that the initial estimate for payrolls reflects the best September-October jump (in percentage terms) since 1987. Just remember that payrolls always peak well after the economy has started its decline.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 39.24. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. (Now were are high enough to descend again - watch out!)
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 57.93 %. (Chart Here) The downside decent has reversed, but will it continue to rise above 50%? The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 57.45. (Chart Here) Below support zone but rising. Next stop was ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.47. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,864. (Chart Here) We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance at ~10600/900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. If they don't then there an excellent possibility for the markets going higher now that we have topped 10900. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The longer 6 month outlook is now 50-50 sell and will remain neutral until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's game plan. Investors should employ the first thing one learns while in a foxhole; keep their head down.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17653 up 41 or 0.23%. (Historical High 17,705.48)
The SP500 is at 2039 up 0.77 or 0.05%. (Historical High 2,046.18)
SPY is at 203.90 up 0.23 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1175 down 11 or 0.93%.
NASDAQ is at 4680 up 5 or 0.11%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4213 up 18 or 0.43%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.79 up 0.77 or 5.91%. Bullish to neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive and trending up.
WTI oil is trading between 77.12 (resistance) and 74.16 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 74.36. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1167.30 earlier to 1153.47, but has moved back up to its earlier highs and is currently trading up at 1161.20. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 2.989 falling from 3.051 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 87.95 and 87.69 and is currently trading down at 87.82, the bias is currently trending sideways. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary