Market Commentary: Large Caps Down, Small Caps Up, Volume Low

August 15th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, market close

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 08-15-2014

One mini 'Black Swan' and the markets go nuts, but I guess it could have been worse. Ukrainian forces blow up a couple of Russian trucks and the markets take a dive, excellent news for the BTFDers.

By 4 pm the averages had regained some of the earlier losses, but on low volume thanks to the HFT algo computers.

Follow up:

Investors are wary of unknown Ukraine / Russian escalation problems that could crop up over the weekend and decided to opt out. Probably a good strategy considering the other World 'issues' going on.

Stocks end little changed after recovering from a midday swoon on latest Ukraine worries

NEW YORK (AP) - The stock market recovered from a midday swoon caused by the latest worries over Ukraine and ended little changed.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index ended pretty much where it started the day on Friday, at 1,955 points, down a fraction of a point. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 50 points, or 0.3 percent, to 16,662.

It was down 138 earlier. The Nasdaq composite rose 11 points, or 0.3 percent, to 4,463. The Ukrainian president said his military destroyed most of a Russian military convoy that entered his country. Russia denied it.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains below zero at -4.76. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish. members' sentiments are 47 % bearish.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 58.3 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 62.45. (Chart Here) Very close to support. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 71.20. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance.

The Market Is Overpriced But The Correction Will Likely Be Shallow (and it was) Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +35.77. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and start to descend, but any thing below 30 / 40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and the reverse is true at +40. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 67.12. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 16598 down 115 or -0.69%.

The SP500 is at 1945 down 10 or -0.51%.

SPY is at 194.74 down 1 or -0.53%.

The $RUT is at 1133 down 10 or -0.90%.

NASDAQ is at 4434 down 19 or -0.42%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3958 down 10 or -0.26%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.37 up 1.95 or 15.78%. Bearish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 97.41 (resistance) and 95.32 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 97.05. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 103.69 (resistance) and 102.06 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 103.19. (Chart Here)

Why Gold Will Rise When The Dollar Falls

Gold fell from 1316.45 earlier to 1293.91, reversed course and is currently trading up at 1305.70. The current intra-session trend is sideways. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.107 rising from 3.087 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 81.67 and 81.41 and is currently trading up at 81.47, the bias is currently negative and volatile. (Chart Here)


The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

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Written by Gary


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