Market Commentary: Averages Continue To Trade Sideways On Low Volume

August 5th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 08-05-2014

The averages have remained down and sea-sawed all morning on low volume.

By noon the markets were looking like the were consolidating to move up in the next several sessions. Whatever, I suggest caution.

Follow up:

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -4.68. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period. members' sentiments are 54 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, watch out for the market bottom to fall out.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 59.9 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 63.84. (Chart Here) Very close to support. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 72.80. (Chart Here) Closed below support.

The Market Is Overpriced But The Correction Will Likely Be Shallow Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -65.71. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50, but this time things may be different - where have I heard this before? Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.17. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further.

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:15 is at 16497 down 71 or -0.43%.

The SP500 is at 1930 down 9 or -0.47%.

SPY is at 192.98 down 0.91 or -0.47%.

The $RUT is at 1126 down 1.52 or -0.14%.

NASDAQ is at 4368 down 16 or -0.37%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3886 down 22 or -0.57%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 15.51 up 0.39 or 2.51%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is down and sideways.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 98.66 (resistance) and 97.21 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 97.27.

Brent Crude is trading between 105.65 (resistance) and 104.11 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 104.44.

Gold fell from 1294.39 earlier to 1283.79 and is currently trading up at 1285.70. The current intra-session trend is negative.

Dr. Copper is at 3.200 falling from 3.248 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.70 and 81.37 and is currently trading up at 81.68, the bias is currently positive.


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Written by Gary


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