Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 08-04-2014
I didn't think it was possible for volume to fall to zero, but around 2:30 today it did in some of the major indices - at least I couldn't measure it. The HFT algo computers are pushing the market higher as they always do on low volume days.
The markets closed on a high note and tomorrow (Tuesday up-day) should be interesting fulfilling a normal recovery after a couple of down days.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -2.59. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 45 % bearish and when it goes positive, watch out for the market bottom to fall out. Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 60.6 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here )
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -89.39. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50, but this time things may be different - where have I heard this before? The new support is ay ~-100.
Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16569 up 76 or 0.46%.
The SP500 is at 1939 up 14 or 0.72%.
SPY is at 193.84 up 1.39 or 0.72%.
The $RUT is at 1125 up 10 or 0.89%.
NASDAQ is at 7384 up 31 or 0.72%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3909 up 29 or 0.75%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 15.01 down 2.02 or -11.92%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 98.67 (resistance) and 97.43 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 98.55.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.71 (resistance) and 104.52 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 105.58.
Gold fell from 1296.41 earlier to 12887.11 and is currently trading down at 1289.20. The current intra-session trend is trending sideways and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.248 rising from 3.199 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.45 and 81.36 and is currently trading down at 81.40, the bias is currently sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary