Market Commentary: DOW Makes New High On Anemic Volume, Then Retreats

July 17th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 07-17-2014

About 10:30 am the markets peaked, the DOW set a new record high (17151.52) and then averages made a significant plunge of -0.50% to make investors even more worried. Volume had moved to the moderate level during the decent, but not much volatility.

By noon the averages were solidly in the red and looking for another round of decent on the news of an Malaysian airliner being shot down over the Ukraine.

Follow up:

This incident has upset many investors and the markets are taking it on the chin.

The Fingerpointing Begins: Ukraine Accuses Rebels Of Shooting Down Airplane, Rebels Deny

That didn't take long for the Ukrainian government to know exactly what happened:


All 280 passengers and 15 crew were killed in the crash. The Malaysian Airlines jet was shot down by the BUK Missile System according to Interfax.

Here Is The Real-Time Flight Path Of The Shot Down Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 17

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 10.97. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period. shows a 88 % sell. (Been at 88% for the last 6 sessions, I think their meter is broken) members' sentiments are 56 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 67.4 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 72.01. (Chart Here ) S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 84.00. (Chart Here ) Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 67.23. (Chart Here )

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy."

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:15 is at 17064 down 75 or -0.44%.

The SP500 is at 1968 down 13 or -0.66%.

SPY is at 196.78 down 1.20 or -0.61%.

The $RUT is at 1141 down 10 or -0.90%.

NASDAQ is at 4388 down 38 or -0.85%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3899 down 34 or o.45%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.72 down 1.72 or -0.09%. Bearish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 103.06 (resistance) and 101.27 (support) today. The session bias is elevated, trending up and is currently trading up at 102.75.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.22 (resistance) and 106.81 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and trending up and is currently trading up at 107.69.

Gold fell from 1308.86 earlier to 1299.47, reverse direction, shot up to 1324.30 (and climbing) and is currently trading up at 1323.80. The current intra-session trend is positive and very volatile.

Dr. Copper is at 3.219 rising from 3.202 earlier. Yesterday copper fell from 3.253 to the 3.202 this morning.

The US dollar is trading between 80.62 and 80.65 and is currently trading down at 80.56, the bias is currently negative and volatile.

Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary

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