Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-03-2014
Large caps tested yesterday's closing numbers and failed, for today anyway. So the closing numbers are off the morning lows, but just below the closing numbers of yesterday. The $RUT was the one major averages that showed losses of a quarter point, the others ended up flat, lackluster and on low volume.
By 4 pm investors were STILL scratching their heads and traders were not trading because they can't sell what they buy, besides good profit margins remain elusive. There is a plethora of financial reporting tomorrow morning which could swing the markets either way.
Mr. Aniston recently wrote, his valued opinion on luck and skill and in today's market casino, it is mostly luck.
I think the US is in a mild recession triggered by mild resurgence of inflation. The economy is far weaker than advertised and for some reason the market is ignoring it. It doesn't make sense. There is a difference between luck and skill. Those who are riding the market higher now are simply lucky. Eventually luck runs out ;)
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 13.46. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 16 % sell. (down from 24% sell this morning) Investing.com members' sentiments are 68 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16722 down 21 or -0.13%.
The SP500 is at 1924 down 0.73 or -0.04%.
SPY is at 192.80 down 0.10 or -0.05%.
The $RUT is at 1126 down 2.75 or -0.24%.
NASDAQ is at 4234 down 3 or -0.07%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3730 down 3 or -0.08%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 11.79 up 0.21 or 1.81%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is down and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 102.83 (resistance) and 102.23 (support) today. The session bias is positive, volatile and is currently trading down at 102.83.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.99 (resistance) and 108.34 (support) today. The session bias is sideways, volatile and is currently trading down at 108.83.
Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold fell from 1247.81 earlier to 1241.47 and is currently trading up at 1244.90. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.142 falling from 3.168 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.71 and 80.48 and is currently trading down at 80.58, the bias is currently quiet and sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary