Market Commentary: Anemic Volume, Flat Averages Awaiting FMOC Minutes

April 30th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 04-30-2014

The noontime action has brought the large cap averages up into the green, but the small caps remain in the red. Both are in the flat status and volume has once again fallen to the anemic levels as investors ponder the markets fate.

By noon the session looks like it will be another quiet day in front of the FMOC meeting and sudden pull-backs are to be expected. As the large caps move in and out of the red investor await the FMOC minutes on baited breath.

Follow up:

Hold onto your seats, because if the Fed's decide to do ANYTHING it will make the market clowns do things you never believed could happen.

Pre-FOMC Market Update: Chaos

ADP "beat" sent stocks and USD up, bonds and gold down. GDP "miss" sent stocks and USD down, bonds and gold up... and now the Fed's emergency meeting has sent all asset classes into a Tapering-the-taper frenzy.

. . . as chaos hits markets sending stocks up to highs of day (less Taper), Bond yields to lows of day (low growth less taper), USD tumbling (less taper, moar QE vs ECB), and Gold jumping higher (less taper, more QE)...

correlation is crumbling everywhere as the Fed's calming communications cause chaos...

We will soon enough find out what this meeting was all about and in this case, no news is about to be bad news.

Why Did The Fed Hold An Emergency Meeting Yesterday?

Everyone knows that the FOMC announcement, due today at 2 pm, will be the culmination of an orderly, traditional 2-day meeting which started yesterday, April 29.

What few know, however, is that in addition to the generic FOMC meeting which started yesterday at 10:30 am, at about the same time, the Fed also held an "expedited" emergency meeting between the four board governors Yellen, Tarullo, Stein, and Powell.

So what was discussed?

We won't know because the "meeting was closed to public observation by Order of the Board of Governors because the matters fall under exemption(s) 9(A)(i) of the Government in the Sunshine Act (5 U.S.C. Section 552b(c)), and it was determined that the public interest did not require opening the meeting."

The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 5.28. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although shows a 8 % buy. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.) members' sentiments are 76% bearish.

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 16548 up 13 or 0.08%.

The SP500 is at 1879 up 0.40 or 0.02%.

SPY is at 187.80 up 0.06 or 0.03%.

The $RUT is at 1115 down 6 or -0.52%.

NASDAQ is at 4093 down 11 or -0.26%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3569 down 5 or -0.13%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.74 up 0.02 or 0.15%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is sideways and flat.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 102.12 (resistance) and 99.37 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 99.63.

Brent Crude is trading between 109.36 (resistance) and 107.56 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 108.06.

Gold fell from 1297.27 earlier to 1285.55 and is currently trading down at 1292.90. The current intra-session trend is sideways and volatile.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.028 falling from 3.078 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.00 and 79.52 and is currently trading down at 79.56, the bias is currently negative.

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Written by Gary


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