Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 04-14-2014
The afternoon session has been a volatile one, first falling nearly going negative for the large caps and red for the small caps. That all changed at 3:15 with a sudden reversal sending the averages almost back up to the session highs.
By 4 pm the averages were solidly in the green sporting nice solid percentage gains for both the large and small caps on relatively moderate volume. However, this bull run is in question as market problems are still an issue.
I have to admit the day's session ended up nicely, but I have suspicions on just how valid this run has been - smells like another pump-in-dump in progress and I would advise supreme caution.
The US open was enough of an event to decouple stocks (up) from USDJPY (down) but as we approached the crucial 330ET "fundamental" stocks had caught down to USDJPY weakness (worth noting that USDJPY tagged 102 in the pre-open and plunged).
The 330 Ramp - JPY and VIX driven - was right on time getting S&P to VWAP and up to its 100DMA and Nasdaq back above 4000.
Away from the roller-coaster ride in hope, faith, and BTFD charity in stocks, Treasuries leaked higher in yield all day (with 5Y underperforming and 30Y unch). The USD was bid (+0.3%) led by EUR weakness. USD strength pressured commodities but Gold was bid (closing above $1325 at 3-week highs).
All major equity indices remain red year-to-date (and negative from 3/19's FOMC). All "normal" and full of unriggedness.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 48 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)
It is looking more and more like an ordinary correction and we will probably will see the major downturn later in 2014 after investor realize there isn't going to be a real recovery with inflation and interest rates easing up anyway.
While not necessarily predicting a waterfall, jaw dropping market decent I don't think the market can avoid at least a 20%, from peak, correction tied into the end of the Fed QE tapering. The real decent could come before or after the QE ending, either way, it should occur by the end of 2014
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 16173 up 146 or 0.91%.
The SP500 is at 1831 up 15 or 0.82%.
SPY is at 182.95 up 1.43 or 0.79%.
The $RUT is at 1115 up 4 or 0.35%.
NASDAQ is at 4023 up 23 or 0.57%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3475 up 28 or 0.81%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 16.16 down 0.87 or -5.11%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 104.55 (resistance) and 103.38 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 103.58.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.10 (resistance) and 107.30 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 108.93.
Gold rose from 1319.20 earlier to 1331.31 and is currently trading down at 1326.20. The current intra-session trend is sideways and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.041 falling from 3.061 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.1 and 79.62 and is currently trading down at 79.81, the bias is currently sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary