Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 04-04-2014
The old saying, if it is too good to be true seems to be what the market is telling us by the midday. Moderate losses for the large caps and heavy ones for the small caps. The question now is how much of a correction are we going to see. The 'guess' have been 10 to 40 percent and I am glad to have put away some extra cash as there is going to be some terrific buys in the future.
The market hasn't really crashed - yet anyway, but I am using the photo below to grab your attention.
We have been warning of a correction for several weeks and it has started.
UPDATE: Nasdaq negative year-to-date; Biotechs 3-month lows. AMZN, FB, TWTR, NFLX, P all in Bear market territory.
Shortly after 946amET, the stock of The Nasdaq OMX Group suddenly dropped in a mini-flash-crash from from 35.98 to 35.00 in just over 2 seconds on approximately 100,000 shares.
As Nanex notes, this is what high-frequency-trading liquidity looks like. But now, an hour or so later, the Nasdaq index and most especialy its Biotech and high-growth names are being crushed.
Biotechs are near 3-month lows, Momos are down 16 to 18% since FOMC, and Nasdaq is about to go negative for the year.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 16 % buy. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 16526 down 46 or -0.28%.
The SP500 is at 1877 down 11 or -0.59%.
SPY is at 187.60 down 1 or -0.54%.
The $RUT is at 1157 down 25 or -2.07%.
NASDAQ is at 4149 down 88 or -2.08%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3562 down 76 or -2.08%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.08 up 0.71 or 5.39%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 100.30 and 101.60 today. The session bias is down and is currently trading down at 101.12.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.66 and 107.02 today. The session bias is mixed and is currently trading down at 106.66.
Gold rose from 1284.52 earlier to 1306.96 and is currently trading up at 1305.30. The current intra-session trend is positive.
Dr. Copper is at 3.016 falling from 3.060 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.48 and 80.76 and is currently trading down at 80.55, the bias is currently mixed and volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary