Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 04-01-2014
The averages have traded more or less sideways with a slightly negative slant this morning. The SP500 set a new historic high by 0.63 cents and then backed off on falling volume. By the noontime hour the volume was anemic as investors are holding back until Mr. market does something.
There are all kinds of indicators and I guess instutiona buying and selling is as good as any. What do you think?
The NYA, the S&P 500, the NDX, and the Russell 2000 all showed a positive level yesterday when compared to their December 31, 2013 close.
But an index that was still not able to clear its December 31 level was the Institutional Index of "core holdings". It was close ... 0.03% away, but it still didn't clear the hurdle at the close (see the posted chart below).
Why do we look for the Institutional "core holdings" to break out above its December 31st. level?
It is because, that in the past, the Institutional Index was always the only index to fail at market peaks.
It is [not] that we are saying that this will turn out to be a market peak yet, but the stock market can't move to new higher levels and leave the Institutional Investors behind. Therefore, we will need to see the value of the Institutional "core holdings" break out to the upside for a market continuation.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 80 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for days.)
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The DOW at 12:00 is at 16519 up 62 or 0.37%.
The SP500 is at 1880 up 8 or 0.41%.
SPY is at 187.76 up 1 or 0.41%.
The $RUT is (Not reporting)
NASDAQ is at 4249 up 51 or 1.22%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3611 up 49 or 1.35%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.31 down 0.56 or -4.03%. Neutral Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is elevated but sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 101.45 and 100.17 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 100.23.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.81 and 106.30 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 106.33.
Gold rose from 1278.33 earlier to 1288.37 and has reversed course and currently trading down at 1280.30. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.031 rising from 3.018 earlier. (Prices are volatile and swinging between 3.018 and 3.040)
The US dollar is trading between 80.13 and 80.28 and is currently trading down at 80.17, the bias is currently positive, but volatile.
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Written by Gary