Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 12-13-2013
Markets floundered up and down most of the day ending in a mixed, flat and lackluster session. There were definitely spikes of profit taking volume several times during today's session signaling caution for any bulls BTFAITH. Minor selloff at the end, but is worthless in determining what will transpire on Monday. Never the less investors appear to be taking on the cautious stance in preparation of the upcoming FMOC meeting.
I was right that the markets would have a positive day, but it is disappointing that it was a lackluster one remaining near the flat most of the day. I can see where the bears were getting excited when the averages started to move towards the morning lows at 2:30 pm, but that didn't pan out for them. This session action might become the norm until we hear from the Feds on the 18th. Oh yes, the lunch was great and do I have a story how a counter gal could not make change today and the manage had to help her count - holy cow, really sad!
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's cryptic utterances in hinting when the taper will begin and by how much. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does WHEN it actually does something.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is actually going to do, simple as that. If we get some Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion, how much of course depends on much bond buying takes place. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future.
Members of the FOMC believe the US economy has shown signs of improvement, but they have assured short-term interest rates would remain low for quite some time to come. Alpari Market Analyst, Craig Erlam, said: "Many members of the Fed now appear eager to start winding down its asset purchases and are looking for ways to do it that will create the least disruption in the financial markets, such as setting simple thresholds for reductions, or even more simply, providing a timetable for tapering that is not data dependent."
ADVFN reported, "The rally in question has been built on the back of the Fed's promise of a stimulatory environment. If any catalyst points to the Fed giving up its accommodative stance, there is a danger of a pullback and near term support for the index lies around the 15,965, 15,890 and 15,804 levels."
Personally, I think it could go a lot lower.
Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle (shooting star) to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15755 up 16 or 0.10%.
The SP500 is at 1775 down 0.18 or -0.01%.
SPY is at 177.99 down 0.02 or -0.01%.
The $RUT is at 1107 up 4 or 0.34%.
NASDAQ is at 4001 up 3 or 0.06%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3456 down 4 or -0.11%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 97.60 and 96.27 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 96.50.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.97 and 108.03 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 108.79.
Gold rose from 1220.13 earlier to 1238.00 and is currently trading up at 1237.10.
Dr. Copper is at 3.311 rising from 3.278 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.42 and 80.14 and is currently trading down at 80.21, the bias is currently positive.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary