Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-19-2013
This session has been sort of a sea-saw as it never got a hold of a bull strong enough to climb higher, but strong enough to ward off the bears. We have seen this before where the markets slither sideways for a while and then ease themselves up to new highs and that could be the pattern here.
The volume has been low with spurts of green and red spikes here and there, but generally leaving the averages flat, lackluster and in the red.
Apart from the news that the Census Bureau has been fudging 2012 job data by systematic manipulation, they now say that claim is misleading. Zerohedge commented, "So that's good then - just unsystematic? A single-manipulator, acting alone (from the book depository?)." Regular readers know that I have continually blasted the BLS and others on fudging their data for several years. Eventually this will implode and everyone will point fingers at each other - what a joke.
The short term indicators are still leaning towards the sell side at the close, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does. Yesterday was a red candle and appears to be confirmed today as a direction change, with another red candle. We will most likely see several more sessions melting downward or at least sideways.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is going to do, simple as that. If we get Fed tapering in December, highly unlikely now after Janet Yellen's dovish remarks, the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future as light volume suggest a lack of comment from investors. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle (shooting Star) to verify a top along with heavy volume. (I am waiting for my cabbie to inform me of some new and exciting stock to buy into. That should be the signal that the 'sheeples' are all in)
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15967 down 9 or -0.06%.
The SP500 is at 1788 down 3.66 or -0.30%.
SPY is at 179.01 down 0.39 or -0.22%.
The $RUT is at 1101 down 6 or -0.53%.
NASDAQ is at 3931 down 18 or -0.44%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3378 down 11 or -0.32%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways with a bearish slant.
WTI oil is trading between 94.09 and 93.22 today. The session bias is mixed with a positive slant and is currently trading up at 93.94.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.62 and 106.79 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.06.
Gold rose from 1268.54 earlier to 1278.20 and is currently trading down at 1273.80.
Dr. Copper is at 3.156 rising from 3.125 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.60 and 80.87 and is currently trading up at 80.70, the bias is currently sideways with a negative slant.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary