Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 11-19-2013
Markets are wandering today and remaining mostly flat on mostly low volume. Unless something interesting happens in the next several hours, I suspect the averages will continue this trend right up to the closing bell. By 12:15 were up +0.10% ending a halfhearted attempt to regain this mornings highs.
The short term indicators are still leaning towards the sell side at the midday, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does. Yesterday was a red candle and if confirmed today as a direction change, with another red candle, we will most likely see several more sessions melting downward.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is going to do, simple as that. If we get Fed tapering in December, highly unlikely now, the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future as light volume suggest a lack of comment from investors. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 15990 up 15 or 0.10%.
The SP500 is at 1792 up 1 or 0.07%.
SPY is at 179.57 up 0.14 or 0.08%.
The $RUT is at 1109 up 2 or 0.16%.
NASDAQ is at 3953 up 4 or 0.09%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3393 up 4 or 0.13%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 94.03 and 93.22 today. The session bias is mixed with a positive slant and is currently trading down at 93.75.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.62 and 107.59 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.94.
Gold rose from 1268.54 earlier to 1278.20 and is currently trading down at 1274.10.
Dr. Copper is at 3.159 rising from 3.125 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.60 and 80.87 and is currently trading up at 80.73, the bias is currently sideways with a negative slant.
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Written by Gary