Closing Market Commentary For 11-01-2013
From a volume wise perspective the markets were quiet today until the closing minutes were the selling picked up and began to slide a 'tad' that might be indicative of what we will see on Monday.
By 4 pm the markets had completed a session best describes as uninteresting even though the DOW closed up a half point and the SPY and SP500 closed up a quarter point. It was the anemic volume and the HFT that dampens any thought that was a true indicator of a solid market.
Mr. Market had little to do with today's rise as the HFT computers did all the lifting and should be soundly discounted. I would love to say this is the type of action before a great move of some sort, but in fact it is just investors lethargy in not wanting to participate. The Fed has investors by the short hairs and most savvy souls are reluctant at best to take a stand until the December FOMC at the earliest. We just might see a very lazy market for the rest of November.
The short term indicators are leaning heavily towards the sell side by this sessions end, but because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin, I would take it with a grain of salt. The longer outlook remains 40-60 sell. Barchart has the long term at 100% sell - wow!
If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15615 up 70 or 0.45%.
The SP500 is at 1762 up 5 or 0.29%.
SPY is at 175.96 up 0.42 or 0.24%.
The $RUT is at 1096 down 4.48 or -0.41%.
NASDAQ is at 3922 up 2 or 0.06%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3380 up 2 or 0.06%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 96.64 and 94.39 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 94.64.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.35 and 105.76 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.95.
Gold fell from 1327.28 earlier to 1305.84 and is currently trading up at 1315.20.
Dr. Copper is at 3.299 falling from 3.325 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.35 and 80.87 and is currently trading up at 80.82, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary