Market Commentary: Rumors Of A Deal Sends Markets Soaring On The Opening bell

October 16th, 2013
in Gary's blogging, market open

Written by

Opening Market Commentary For 10-16-2013

Premarkets were up on rumors that a plan was near, but you already knew that didn't you? Not much to add here.

Markets opened up and continued pushing higher as bullish euphoria was exploding among the BTFDers. Good volume but expect volatility changes about noon and just before the closing bell to coincide with US law makers speeches.

Follow up:

The 'real' problems remain while the stock market goes crazy.

With Less Than A Day Until The X-Date, Hope And Optimism Remain If Not Much Else

It's gotten beyond silly: with less than a day to go until the first X-Date, beyond which if Jack Lew is correct (he isn't) all hell will break loose if the US doesn't have a debt deal in place, stocks couldn't care less.

Bills continue to sell off, carry traders only care how big the central banks' balance sheets are, all news are generally shunned and yet stocks have soared 600 DJIA points on Harry Reid's relentless optimism a deal will get done, even though so far none has.

Today, as we observed on Monday, we expect more of the same: stocks and futures will ignore the reality that the midnight hour will come and go with no deal in place, but will continue to explode higher as Harry Reid's latest set of "optimism" headlines hits the tape in low volume trading.

We expect the first big hope rally around POMO time, then shortly after Senate comes back in Session, around noon.

Then for good measure, another one just before market close. Why not: it's not like the "market" even pretend to be one anymore.

Keep an eye on today's 4-Week bill auction before noon. It should be a far bigger doozy than yesterday's longer-dated bills.

The DOW at 10:00 is at 15351 up 182 or 1.19%.

The SP500 is at 1717 up 19 or 1.13%.

SPY is at 171.66 up 2 or 1.15%.

The $RUT is at 1091 up 11 or 1.06%.

NASDAQ is at 3834 up 40 or 1.06%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3276 up 32 or 0.98%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 100.78 and 101.87 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 101.87.

Brent Crude is trading between 109.06 and 110.28 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 110.09.

Gold fell from 1287.17 earlier to 1270.46 and is currently trading down at 1272.20.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.301 rising from 3.264 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.37 and 80.67 and is currently trading up at 80.61, the bias is currently positive.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:


Written by Gary


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