Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 10-08-2013
It is always market changing when the $VIX inches above 20 and earlier it was at 21 first time since the end of June this year and closing at 20.38. Political rhetoric in Washington today drove the markets down and nothing appears to be changing.
By 4:00 the markets closed down with investors wondering who is going to blink first as the President took another shot at the Republicans this afternoon.
At 2:30 pm today, we were close to the uptrend line for most of the markets which coincidences with a strong support. Dipping below this line in the sand would be most concerning to the bulls and could signal a change of strategy for the BTFD crowd. The next support for the SP500 is at ~1654 which also coincides with the up trend line beginning at the first of February this year.
The SP500 reached 1657 today and it isn't a far reach to move further down to 1654. Actually dropping below that number is really O.K. for now, not really good, but not disastrous either. The real problem here is that we do not go below 1627 because there is a good chance to see a nice recovery and move up to test the highs made in September.
Going below ~1627 communicates to the World that the bull market is in real trouble and a decent of 15% from the September 19th highs becomes a real possibility should Mr. Market decide to slide below that mark.
It appears to be as much as a week before that disastrous reality becomes a fact, so there is some time to construct your fallout shelter.
Of course one of the stupid politicians could pass gas in the meantime, point the middle finger at his opposing side and blame the stink on them. It has happened before and the markets tanked, be alert because it is in the cards being dealt! Oh wait a minute, it is already happening - sorry my bad.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 14776 down 160 or -1.07%.
The SP500 is at 16165562 down 21 or -1.23%.
SPY is at 165.43 down 1.95 or -1.16%.
The $RUT is at 1047 down 18 or -1.74%.
NASDAQ is at 3695 down 76 or -2.00%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3154 down 76 or -2.37%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is neutral, the past 5 sessions have been bearish and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 104.06 and 102.86 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading up at 103.52.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.09 and 110.79 today. The session bias is slightly negative and is currently trading down at 110.11.
Gold rose from 1316.07 earlier to 1330.16 and is currently trading down at 1319.20.
Dr. Copper is at 3.293 falling from 3.321 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.16 and 79.92 and is currently trading up at 80.09, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary