Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-30-2013
On Sunday the SP500 futures gaped down 10.27 points to bad our crystal balls didn't alert us, would have been a nice scalp. This morning's premarket was still down some 85% and sank further on the market's opening.
By the 15 minute mark the averages had recovered +0.05% from the initial opening lows and began to sea-saw back and forth on relatively moderate to heavy volume as investors are contemplating the odds of a government shutdown tonight at midnight.
By 10 am the sinking ship was bobbing in the sea of red volume as any remaining investors on board were deciding what their prospects of survival were.
At Friday's close the percentage of government shutdown was at 40%, now it is at +85%, but who knew? Anyone that claims they knew the government was going to shutdown are guessing and you know what I think of guessing. Besides, it hasn't happened yet. Guess well and you can make a bundle, the odds are 50-50 at this point of the game.
The Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Confirms "Untradeable". Something we have known for a week now. Maybe we have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as Dr. Ben continues to hand out 'Free Ice Cream"! As of this morning there are more significant gaps left when the markets opened this morning. Gaps above are bullish as they tend to be filled sooner rather than later, meaning after the government gridlock is over next week, we should see the market rise and at least fill in those gaps..
The daily problem facing traders is that the trading range during normal hours, has been so narrow lately, that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15129 down 129 or -0.84%.
The SP500 is at 1679 down 12 or -0.74%.
SPY is at 167.71 down 1.20 or -0.70%.
The $RUT is at 1064 down 10 or -0.93%.
NASDAQ is at 3755 down 26 or -0.68%.
NASDAQ 100 is off line.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is sideways with a slight positive trend.
WTI oil is trading between 103.15 and 101.05 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 101.09. (0.48point gap at 102.85)
Brent Crude is trading between 108.95 and 107.23 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 107.36. (gap at 108.42)
Gold fell from 1350.32 earlier to 1323.11 and is currently trading up at 1327.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.328 rising from 3.294 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.45 and 80.12 and is currently trading up at 80.26, the bias is currently bullish.
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Written by Gary