Today's Lame Recovery Looks Like The US 'Great' Recovery

September 24th, 2013
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 09-24-2013

The averages melted back up to yesterdays' session highs as the BTFDers jumped in with abandon moving the markets +0.10% higher. Then on falling volume the markets backed off and starting to trend downward which reminds me of this so-called recovery we are in.

Follow up:

The talk of 'The Great Recovery' has been going on for several years as the Main Stream Media Pundits have been trying to cram down our throats that everything is getting better. Clearly they do not know what they are talking about, but Doug Short give us an insight to the real world about us.

Median Household Income Growth: Deflating The American Dream

What is the single best indicator of the American Dream?

Many would point to household income growth. My study of the Census Bureau's data shows a 600.7% growth in median household incomes from 1967 through 2012.

The ride has been bumpy, but it equates to a 4.5% annualized growth rate. Sounds impressive, but if you adjust for inflation using the Census Bureau's method, that nominal 614.2% total growth shrinks to 18.8%, a "real" annualized growth rate of 0.39%.

But if we dig a bit deeper into the method of inflation adjustment, the American Dream looks more like an illusion, as in "money illusion".

Trading today's market is an exercise in futility. Even if you were to guess correctly the bottom and buy and then guess correctly again the session top, there would only be an average +0.25% swing for the day - that is awful. Plus, who would be in their right mind to want to hold overnight.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 15414 up 13 or 0.08%.

The SP500 is at 1704 up 2 or 0.11%.

SPY is at 170.11 up 0.18 or 0.11%.

The $RUT is at 1078 up 6 or 0.54%.

NASDAQ is at 3778 up 13 or 0.35%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3229 up 9 or 0.29%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 3 sessions have been down and the current bias is sideways with a negative slant.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 103.64 and 102.30 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 102.86.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.36 and 107.44 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 108.06.

Gold fell from 1329.34 earlier to 1306.14 and is currently trading up at 1315.80.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.250 fell from 3.295 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.74 and 80.52 and is currently trading up at 80.64, the bias is currently sideways.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:


Written by Gary


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