Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-13-2013
Welcome to Friday the 13th. For some this will be an unlucky day I hope yours is not among them. Premarkets were up ~+0,20% and remained that way when the Commerce and Labor Departments reported retail sales rose 0.2% in August, missing expectations it would rise 0.4% and wholesale inflation rose 0.3% in August, compared to expectations it would rise 0.2%.
Markets opened up on the 'not so good' news (DOW +0.30%, SP500 +0.20%) then retreated somewhat and rose, then retreated, then rose - 'jerk city' is the name of the game this morning.
The BTFDers had the most volume but the bears were out keeping the averages from taking off. Still, not enough range to safely trade on.
'Bear' in mind that we are approaching a test of a triple top which could set things afire one way or another. Projections for a triangle breakout to happen between March and August 2014, although you know it could happen at any time.
By 10 am the averages had made an attempt to burst solidly into the upper resistance, but was solidly rebuffed by the bears as the small caps took the plunge first, large caps not far behind.
The RRR** was again narrow at the opening bell today with trading ranges narrow and unpredictable. As of right now, it MAY be too late to jump in to catch the market highs, safely anyway. There are indicators we will see markets move up and test a triple top sometime in 2014, but that is not a given and would be cautious at this point.
Traders also need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still is too early to pick out your best candidates, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the fourth quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation lately.
The DOW at 10:00 is at 15345 up 45 or 0.30%.
The SP500 is at 1685 up 1.65 or 0.08%.
SPY is at 168.97 up 0.03 or 0.02%.
The $RUT is at 1049 up 1 or 0.10%.
NASDAQ is at 3710 down 6 or -0.17%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3169 down 7 or -0.22%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 108.81 and 107.24 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.66.
Brent Crude is trading between 111.86 (gap here) and 110.56 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 110.97.
Gold fell from 1330.61 earlier to 1304.86 and is currently trading down at 1317.70.
Dr. Copper is at 3.202 fell from 3.223 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.57 and 81.91 and is currently trading up at 81.84, the bias is currently positive.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary