Opening Market Commentary For 08-08-2013
Premarkets were up some +0.40% and melted back when the US Continuing Claims rose by 3,000 to 333K. The SP500 futures fell 3 points but soon melted back up as investors decided to ignore the news.
At the opening bell, markets gaped upwards from yesterday's close where the large caps shot up +0.50% and the small caps led the way at +0.65%. The BTFD folks, as well as sellers, were out in force creating a moderate volume of trading that quickly started to melt the averages downwards.
But the euphoria didn't last very long.
By 10 am the $VIX was back up to 13.00 from 12.50, the SP500 dropped 7 points from its high point this morning and the volume remained at moderate levels. The gap created at the opening were closed as the markets deteriorated back down to yesterday's closing numbers which now serve as a support level.
The time will come where we will see a serious collapse of the markets as we now know them. This type of Tom Foolery the Fed continues to dish out free ice cream to it banking cronies simply can not continue holding this house of cards together.
The Inflation Trader points out in the article, The Disturbing Evolution Of Central Banking.
“we see the possible long-term repercussions of the 2008 crisis and the weak recovery on the whole landscape of monetary policy going forward for many years . . .”
“. . . it is pretty bad. Not only are central banks evolving to become ever-more-dovish right exactly at the time when they need to be guarding ever more diligently against rising inflation as rates and hence money velocity turn higher, but they are also becoming less independent at the same time.”
As I wrote above, investors decided to ignore the bad news and the market rose at the opening, then the BTFD folks lost a lot of money. At some point sanity will prevail and a bunch of investors will say, enough is enough and jump ship and the rats will follow. Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately depending on the way you look at it, this disaster in the making isn't going to happen for a while. Some say September or November time frame and others claim later on in 2014.
While the utility of initial claims data in a regime dominated by 70% retention of part-time workers and in which even the Fed says the distortion of the labor force participation rate makes unemployment numbers skewed to the downside.
Those who follow the weekly claims number will be happy (or maybe sad) to learn that there were 333K new initial claims filed in the week ended August 3, just 2K below expectations and 5K above last week's upward revised 328K (from 326K).
No states claims were estimated in the past week the DOL reported. The good news: the four-week average fell to the lowest since November 2007. The bad news: this number is hardly horrible enough to send futures soaring.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15458 down 12 or -0.08%.
The SP500 is at 1692 up 1 or 0.09%.
SPY is at 169.37 up 0.20 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 1046 up 2 or 0.19%.
NASDAQ is at 3654 up 0.52 or 0.01%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3115 down 4 or -0.12%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been slipping and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 104.96 and 103.06 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 103.09.
Brent crude is trading between 107.85 and 106.34 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 106.42.
Gold rose from 1286.95 earlier to 1305.24 and is currently trading up at 1303.30.
Dr. Copper is at 3.276 rising from 3.174 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.40 and 80.96 and is currently trading down at 80.99, the bias is currently bearish.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary
<p><strong><span style="font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Written by <a rel="”author”" href="/files/gary.htm">Gary</a></span></span></strong></p>
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