June 24th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 06-24-2013
A weak premarket and China's credit problems was enough to ease the markets down again this morning.
The averages started to descend immediately after the opening gaping below a weak support at 1575 on the 500 and by 10 am looking to melt down to test the 1542 support. Volume is heavy, but falling off slightly. Markets might have leveled off for the day. Down day yes, but not moving much further.
The RRR** was narrow at the opening bell today but the swing value was very good. The $VIX gaped up from 18.67 to 20.86 and will probably be closed before too long. Meaning the market will correct upwards as I have surmised before.
As of right now, it is too risky to jump in to catch anymore highs, safely anyway. Better to be in cash. Traders need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops on any longs (or shorts) as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates as I feel we will see the averages move back up to close out the gaps from 6-19 and today.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 81% Slips From 93% Last Week and Secondaries Also Slip From Confirm "Tradable" to Negative This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The daily trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14572 down 228 or -1.54%.
The SP500 is at 1565 down 27 or -1.70%.
SPY is at 156.26 down 3 or -1.79%.
The $RUT is at 947.07 down 16 or -1.72%.
NASDAQ is at 3303 down 54 or -1.61%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2831 down 47 or -1.63%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 92.73 and 93.90 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 93.37.
Brent crude is trading between 99.82 and 101.09 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 100.06.
Gold fell from 1300.61 earlier to 1277.72 and is currently trading down at 1283.35.
Dr. Copper is at 3.019 down from 3.101 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.40 and 83.04 and is currently trading up at 82.84, the bias is currently neutral with a serious gap at 82.61.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary