June 18th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 06-18-2013
Premarkets were up +0.10% in the early hours and started to melt down towards yesterday's closing numbers after the financials were in. The financial reporting this morning was again, 'not-so-good' in my opinion and may ease any upwards pressures today particularly in the afternoon.
Markets opened in the green but flat with low volume as investors considered their options. At this point, options, appear to be few considering where China and the EU are. Gaps left from yesterday's opening are still their waiting to be closed; another negative sign. By 10 am the averages were coasting along with a very slight positive slant looking especially weak.
The financials reported today are below. The first column is what was reported and the second is what analysts were predicting. The third column is the last report.
The RRR** has was narrow at the opening bell today and it doesn't look like it is going to expand any in today's session.
As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. Traders need to be especially cautious how close you set your stops as we have seen lately several corrections that unnecessarily wiped out a lot of investment profits. As for shorting, it still may be too early to start picking out your best candidates, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation for the past year. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several months.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: At 90% Slips From 93% Last Week and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above ~60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The single largest problem with trading is that the RRR** has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly
The DOW at 10:00 is at 15238 up 56 or 0.37%.
The SP500 is at 1642 up 3 or 0.22%.
SPY is at 164.80 up 0.36 or 0.22%.
The $RUT is at 989.52 up 1.68 or 0.16%.
NASDAQ is at 3464 up 12 or 0.36%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2984 up 13 or 0.43%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 97.65 and 98.67 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 98.52.
Brent crude is trading between 105.13 and 106.19 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 106.03.
Gold fell from 1385.39 earlier to 1366.14 and is currently trading down at 1366.75.
Dr. Copper is at 3.144 falling from 3.218 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.71 and 81.16 and is currently trading down at 80.88, the bias is currently negative.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary