May 15th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 05-15-2013
Noon time showed what the bears have been afraid of and that is a rising market. The Energizer Bunny Market just keeps on going with the large caps in the lead. Volume is low to moderate and a lot of profit taking along the way. The largest rises are at the lowest volume rates and suspect the HFT computer pushing the averages upward. Actually, it doesn't look good as I see a small decline off the highs before the end of the day.
Think twice before jumping into this fray.
There have been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally.
There are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles which are that interest rates are low, corporate profitability is high and the Fed's monetary programs continue to put a floor under stocks. The problem is that while we do not disagree with any of those points - they are all artificially influenced by outside factors.
Interest rates are low because of the Federal Reserve's actions, corporate profitability is high due to accounting rule changes following the financial crisis and the Fed is pumping money directly into the stock market. Being bullish on the market in the short term is fine.
The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet will continue to push stocks higher as long as no other crisis presents itself.
However, the problem is that a crisis, which is always unexpected, inevitably will trigger a reversion back to the fundamentals.
The DOW at 12:30 is at 15279 up 64 or 0.42%.
The SP500 is at 1658 up 8 or 0.50%.
SPY is at 166.15 up 0.94 or 0.57%.
The $RUT is at 990.52 up 4.55 or 0.46%.
NASDAQ is at 3472 up 9 or 0.26%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3001 up 5 or 0.19%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 94.43 and 92.20 today. The session bias is bullisah and is currently trading up at 93.87.
Brent crude is trading between 102.66 and 100.91 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 102.49.
Gold fell from 1428.63 earlier to 1389.10 and is currently trading up at 1397.25.
Dr. Copper is at 3.274 falling from 3.311 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 83.66 and 84.21 and is currently trading down at 84.07, the bias is currently neutral with a bullish slant.
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Written by Gary