May 10th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 05-10-2013
Markets closed up, but below yesterday's session. The $VIX is at its lowest point in 2 months at 12.59 and volume was anemic for most of the session. At the 3:30 mark there was a large spike of red volume which did nothing because the 'dippers' once again saved the day pushing the numbers upward on moderate volume. The NASDAQ, $NDX, $RUT and MDY all put in new highs while the DOW and SP500 lagged behind. I am still unsure what new highs we are going to see over the next couple of weeks. I do see a lot of uncertainity.
Interesting thoughts for the weekend.
A funny thing happened on the way to the next Bull market: the price-earnings (P/E) ratio has entered bubble territory--again.
So what if the Bull market is already 4+ years old--no reason it can't run another four years. Or 40 years. The Fed has found the key to a permanent Bull market.
Dow 36,000 is for pikers: Dow 400,000, baby! Another funny thing might happen on the way to Infinite QE Nirvana: giddy "buy the dip, the Fed's got our back" participants tend to forget that major players profit from going short when all the other shorts have been terminated with extreme prejudice, and then taking the market down.
Once they've driven the market down and taken out all the stops, then they can buy back in and launch the next melt-up. What's more profitable, a slow melt-up or a panic sell-off and sharp rebound?
Definitely the latter, if you're heavily short, the market is teetering on record margin debt and you can kick out the critical 2X4 holding the whole contraption up.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15118 up 36 or 0.24%.
The SP500 is at 1633 up 7 or 0.43%.
SPY is at 163.44 up 0.56 or 0.34%.
The $RUT is at 975.15 up 9 or 0.92%.
NASDAQ is at 3436 up 27 or 0.80%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2981 up 20 or 0.67%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is bullish.
WTI oil is trading between 96.24 and 93.41 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 95.88.
Brent crude is trading between 104.42 and 101.56 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 103.75.
Gold fell from 1461.36 earlier to 1419.28 (gap at 1430.35 has been covered) and is currently trading up at 1444.75.
Dr. Copper is at 3.377 rising from 3.303 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.74 and 83.50 and is currently trading down at 83.24, the bias is currently bearish.
The 500 at the close.
The DOW at the close.
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Written by Gary