May 10th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 05-10-2013
Friday's premarket was up +0.05 for the most part mostly a carry over from yesterday's late afternoon rise.
The markets opened flat, mixed and directionless on low volume. By the 15 minute mark the averages had melted down where the DOW was +0.03% and the $NDX was at +0.36%. By 10 the DOW was up +0.18% and the $NDX was up +0.54%. Around and around we go and where we stop nobody knows. I do suspect that today's session will end up being neutral to negative.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and it looks like it is going to be this way all week, like last week. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. As for shorting it may be too early to start shorting, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 92% up From 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above 60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15111 up 26 or 0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1630 up 3 or 0.22%.
SPY is at 163.17 up 0.27 or 0.17%.
The $RUT is at 971.12 up 4.86 or 0.50%.
NASDAQ is at 3425 up 16 or 0.48%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2974 up 13 or 0.46%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is neutral to positive.
WTI oil is trading between 96.24 and 93.87 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 94.00.
Brent crude is trading between 104.42 and 101.95 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 102.03.
Gold fell from 1461.36 earlier to 1424.56 (leaving a gap at 1430.35) and is currently trading down at 1428.85.
Dr. Copper is at 3.336 rising from 3.303 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.74 and 83.25 and is currently trading up at 83.25, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary