May 9th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 05-09-2013
Past couple of sessions were not for the feint of heart just as this one starts out. Premarkets were down and at the opening the averages started melting up to yesterday's highs. Just about when you thought the markets would continue up they started melting down, then back up.
By 10:30 the DOW was down 0.17% and the $RIT was off by 0.55%. The volume is light to moderate with, obviously, more profit taking slowly easing the numbers down. This is no-mans land as Mr. Market could go either way today.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually, and it looks like it is going to continue all week, like last week and the week before that. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to jump in to catch the highs, safely anyway. As for shorting it may be too early to start shorting, but I feel you will not have to wait much longer.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Rises to 92% up From 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but still above 60% where I think it should be! Hard to believe and challenging to deal with considering 'not so good' current events. There is a wedge between perception and reality going on right now where the reality doesn't match this bull run.
The trading range has been so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:45 is at 15087 down 17 or -0.12%.
The SP500 is at 1628 down 4 or -0.25%.
SPY is at 163.05 down 0.30 or -0.18%.
The $RUT is at 966.22 down 4 or -0.43%.
NASDAQ is at 3407 down 5 or -0.16%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2961 down 6 or -0.20%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100 for a heads and shoulder formation.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 96.66 and 95.66 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 95.80.
Brent crude is trading between 104.61 and 103.55 today. The session bias is bullish to neutral and is currently trading up at 104.00.
Gold fell from 1474.75 earlier to 1458.83 and is currently trading up at 1465.65.
Dr. Copper is at 3.343 fell from 3.378 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.83 and 82.34 and is currently trading up at 82.31, the bias is currently bullish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary