April 11th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Opening Market Commentary For 04-11-2013
Premarkets were flat with the NASDAQ down 0.22%. By the time the markets opened it was clear the bulls were still partying as the averages melted up to newer historical highs on moderate volume.
By 10 am the indices were still melting upwards but at a slower rate and my proprietary indicators were now in the bearish range disputing the bulls sentiment of glory and higher profits. Right now I'll let the few longs I have ride out this euphoria and see where it goes as the volume appears to be falling.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months, over a year actually. The last several days have been decent IF you believed the markets were actually going higher. However, a continuing trend of lower volumes makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, I still say it is too late to jump in to catch the highs and still may be too early to start shorting which has proven to be true.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful, or at least profitable, trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on some volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 enters the second quarter, unfortunately a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 89% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This might be true, but challenging to deal with. The trading range is so narrow that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 14826 up 23 or 0.16%.
The SP500 is at 1590 up 2.60 or 0.16%.
SPY is at 159.02 up 0.33 or 0.21%.
The $RUT is at 947.78 up 1.70 or 0.18%.
NASDAQ is at 3296 down 1.42 or -0.04%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 2854 down 5 or -0.15%. (A lot of analysts are currently watching the 100.)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is trading between 94.64 and 93.36 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 94.29.
Brent crude is trading between 106.00 and 105.05 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.32.
Gold rose from 1553.21 earlier to 1568.38 and is currently trading down at 1586.86.
Dr. Copper is at 3.42 rising from 3.39 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.68 and 82.15 and is currently trading down at 82.30, the bias is currently bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary