April 4th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Midday Market Commentary For 04-04-2013
Although volume has been a tiny bit better than some past sessions the sea-saw market action this morning leaves little to be desired by any trader I know. Just about the time it 'appears' the market direction is in play DaBoyz move it in the other direction. Far to dangerous to play in this casino market and likely you will get your clock cleaned.
By noon the pendulum had swung to a down swing on the up and down antics displayed by Mr. Market today. Directionless market are difficult to play.
Everyone is looking for the best way to interpret the 'tea leaves'.
When the masses are leaning in one way it's usually a good idea to take the other side of the trade, says Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, says traders have been jumping into the VIX for months with disappointing results. "We've seen consistent open interest records in the VIX really every month since last year," he says. Despite all this buying, volatility has fallen more than 20% in 2013 while the S&P has gained almost 10%.
At some point the rally will end and volatility will rise in a sustainable way. Based on the number of traders who keep getting fleeced betting they can time this sell-off, the way to play it may be taking some profits on the stocks you own now rather than getting long on the VIX.
Articles we read this morning.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 14557 up 7 or 0.05%.
The SP500 is at 1555 up 1.53 or 0.10%.
SPY is at 155.00 up 0.18 or 0.11%.
The $RUT is at 919.31 up 0.28 or 0.03%.
NASDAQ is at 3209 down 9 or -0.28%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been neutral with a bearish slant and the current bias is up.
WTI oil is trading between 97.44 and 92.31 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 92.42.
Brent crude is trading between 107.78 and 105.28 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 105.33.
Gold fell from 1604.40 earlier to 1541.10 and is currently trading sideways at 1548.90.
Dr. Copper is at 3.35 falling from 3.40 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.82 and 83.66 and is currently trading up at 83.24, the bias is currently neutral to bearish.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
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Written by Gary