February 13th, 2013
in Gary's blogging
Closing Market Commentary For 02-13-2013
Pitiful trading day – almost, nah, I wished I had taken the day off. New highs were reached on low volume and then melted down to approximately yesterday's lows. About 3 pm the algo computers started melting the averages back up with the help of some dippers. Regardless how the markets rose it looks fixed to me and so we are back in town with the 'Market Casino'.
Is the market going to rise or fall tomorrow?
The answer is probably. All kidding aside the market looks tired, weak and ready to take a plunge. I have read where some are predicting a 5% decline and other much more. After 60 straight days of ascent one would naturally expect some sort of consolidation or at least a good down day.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and has continued the trend into the closing session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. As of right now, it is too late to catch the highs and may be too early to start shorting.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 13982 down 36 or -0.26%.
The SP500 is at 1520 up 0.90 or 0.06%.
SPY is at 152.11 up 0.10 or 0.07%.
The $RUT is at 920.58 up 3.06 or 0.33%.
NASDAQ is at 3196 up 10.39 or 0.33%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading up at 97.21 trading between a low of 95.00 and a high of 98.10 and the bias is negative to neutral.
Brent crude was down the up earlier and is currently trading up at 118.72 trading between 118.40 and 119.10 and the bias is negative to neutral.
Gold was falling this morning and then rose to its previous highs before falling near its morning lows. Currently trading up at 1642.80, trading range is between 1668.48 and 1642.55 with a negative bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.74 up from 3.71 earlier.
The US dollar is trading in a narrow range this morning from a high of 80.18 earlier to 79.92 climbing once again to 80.25 and is currently trading sideways at 80.17.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary