Markets Break Out Of Channel – New Yearly Highs

February 8th, 2013
in Gary's blogging

Opening Market Commentary For 02-08-2013

Premarkets were flat this morning and I was surprised when the markets opened up sharply on moderate green volume breaking out of the channel formed 6 sessions ago. The rise was not all that great, but raised an eyebrow just the same as they posted new highs for the year. The USD was being reported this morning to be a 'strong buy' usually meaning the markets will fall. The oils were neutral to positive also indicating a weaker market so the markets gap up was 'interesting'.

By 10 am the markets had settled out at their new highs and started drifting sideways. Obviously the bulls have faith in continuing to set new highs and truth be know the charts indicate the is still room to grow.

Follow up:

The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend again this morning. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable. It is too late to catch the highs and may be too early to start shorting.

As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly 'guessing', of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.

I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 87% and Secondaries Confirm "Tradable" This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.

Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at thi

The DOW at 10:15 is at 14006 up 63 or 0.45%.

The SP500 is at 1516 up 7 or 0.48%.

SPY is at 151.71 up 0.75 or 0.50%.

The $RUT is at 911.72 up 3.64 or 0.40%.

NASDAQ is at 3191 up 26 or 0.84%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil was up this morning and is currently trading down at 96.32 trading between 95.10 and 96.57 and the bias is positive.

More Widening For The Brent/WTI Spread Ahead?

Brent crude was up earlier and is currently trading up at 118.60 trading between 115.10 and 118.83 and the bias is positive.

Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1671.87, trading range is between 1662.31 and 1682.10 with a positive bias.

Dr. Copper is at 3.77 up from 3.73 earlier.

The US dollar fell from 80.33 earlier to 80.01 and is currently trading higher at 80.22.

** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

Written by Gary

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